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08/20/2008 07:00:01 PM · #26 |
Originally posted by kenskid:
Sounds like she did get the signal! I wish you would have kept the "date" of her dream and compared.
I'll spare you some of the mundane stories of my "6th sense" but...you can believe this or not:
One morning I awoke from a dream. In the dream a huge passenger aircraft landed on my street and was slowing rolling past my front door. I could see all the people with their head turned towards me. As the plane went by they kept looking at me and even turned to look "over their left shoulder" as the plane slowly went by. They were just staring. Not scared not happy...just no expression.
I could see them clearly because the top of the plane was missing all the way down to the seats.
I didn't think anything about it because I lived 5 miles from the airport and can hear planes fly by all the time. I just related the dream to the fact that I live near an airport.
I got out of bed...did my morning routine...got in my car to go to work.
I turned on the radio about half way to work and heard the report of the first plane flying into the World Trade Center. This was about 2 hours after I awoke from my dream.
Like I said...you can believe it or not. I know I would have a hard time believing it myself. |
Sometimes people dream of planes. Let's assume that this happens to the average person once every 10 years (which I would consider a very conservative estimate, people probably dream of planes more often).
In the US with a population of about 300 million, you'd expect over 80,000 people who dream of planes on any given day (based on the assumption above). Also in the night before 9/11 80,000 people were dreaming of planes.
And now each of them can come out and say "You won't believe it, I had a dream about planes right before 9/11!". They are right (although they ignore every other time they had a dream about planes and nothing happened). But does this mean there is a sixth sense? No, in no way. |
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08/20/2008 07:02:37 PM · #27 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by kenskid:
Sounds like she did get the signal! I wish you would have kept the "date" of her dream and compared.
I'll spare you some of the mundane stories of my "6th sense" but...you can believe this or not:
One morning I awoke from a dream. In the dream a huge passenger aircraft landed on my street and was slowing rolling past my front door. I could see all the people with their head turned towards me. As the plane went by they kept looking at me and even turned to look "over their left shoulder" as the plane slowly went by. They were just staring. Not scared not happy...just no expression.
I could see them clearly because the top of the plane was missing all the way down to the seats.
I didn't think anything about it because I lived 5 miles from the airport and can hear planes fly by all the time. I just related the dream to the fact that I live near an airport.
I got out of bed...did my morning routine...got in my car to go to work.
I turned on the radio about half way to work and heard the report of the first plane flying into the World Trade Center. This was about 2 hours after I awoke from my dream.
Like I said...you can believe it or not. I know I would have a hard time believing it myself. |
Sometimes people dream of planes. Let's assume that this happens to the average person once every 10 years (which I would consider a very conservative estimate, people probably dream of planes more often).
In the US with a population of about 300 million, you'd expect over 80,000 people who dream of planes on any given day (based on the assumption above). Also in the night before 9/11 80,000 people were dreaming of planes.
And now each of them can come out and say "You won't believe it, I had a dream about planes right before 9/11!". They are right (although they ignore every other time they had a dream about planes and nothing happened). But does this mean there is a sixth sense? No, in no way. |
i've never had a meaniful dream(meaning i cant remember it) about a plane |
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08/20/2008 07:07:29 PM · #28 |
Originally posted by JDubsgirl:
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by kenskid:
Sounds like she did get the signal! I wish you would have kept the "date" of her dream and compared.
I'll spare you some of the mundane stories of my "6th sense" but...you can believe this or not:
One morning I awoke from a dream. In the dream a huge passenger aircraft landed on my street and was slowing rolling past my front door. I could see all the people with their head turned towards me. As the plane went by they kept looking at me and even turned to look "over their left shoulder" as the plane slowly went by. They were just staring. Not scared not happy...just no expression.
I could see them clearly because the top of the plane was missing all the way down to the seats.
I didn't think anything about it because I lived 5 miles from the airport and can hear planes fly by all the time. I just related the dream to the fact that I live near an airport.
I got out of bed...did my morning routine...got in my car to go to work.
I turned on the radio about half way to work and heard the report of the first plane flying into the World Trade Center. This was about 2 hours after I awoke from my dream.
Like I said...you can believe it or not. I know I would have a hard time believing it myself. |
Sometimes people dream of planes. Let's assume that this happens to the average person once every 10 years (which I would consider a very conservative estimate, people probably dream of planes more often).
In the US with a population of about 300 million, you'd expect over 80,000 people who dream of planes on any given day (based on the assumption above). Also in the night before 9/11 80,000 people were dreaming of planes.
And now each of them can come out and say "You won't believe it, I had a dream about planes right before 9/11!". They are right (although they ignore every other time they had a dream about planes and nothing happened). But does this mean there is a sixth sense? No, in no way. |
i've never had a meaniful dream(meaning i cant remember it) about a plane |
Then let's assume that only about 10% of all people ever dream of a plane during their entire lifetime and do so only once (which would be extremely conservative). You'd still have about 1,000 people who were dreaming of a plane right before 9/11. 1,000 incredible stories! |
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08/20/2008 07:11:20 PM · #29 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by JDubsgirl:
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by kenskid:
Sounds like she did get the signal! I wish you would have kept the "date" of her dream and compared.
I'll spare you some of the mundane stories of my "6th sense" but...you can believe this or not:
One morning I awoke from a dream. In the dream a huge passenger aircraft landed on my street and was slowing rolling past my front door. I could see all the people with their head turned towards me. As the plane went by they kept looking at me and even turned to look "over their left shoulder" as the plane slowly went by. They were just staring. Not scared not happy...just no expression.
I could see them clearly because the top of the plane was missing all the way down to the seats.
I didn't think anything about it because I lived 5 miles from the airport and can hear planes fly by all the time. I just related the dream to the fact that I live near an airport.
I got out of bed...did my morning routine...got in my car to go to work.
I turned on the radio about half way to work and heard the report of the first plane flying into the World Trade Center. This was about 2 hours after I awoke from my dream.
Like I said...you can believe it or not. I know I would have a hard time believing it myself. |
Sometimes people dream of planes. Let's assume that this happens to the average person once every 10 years (which I would consider a very conservative estimate, people probably dream of planes more often).
In the US with a population of about 300 million, you'd expect over 80,000 people who dream of planes on any given day (based on the assumption above). Also in the night before 9/11 80,000 people were dreaming of planes.
And now each of them can come out and say "You won't believe it, I had a dream about planes right before 9/11!". They are right (although they ignore every other time they had a dream about planes and nothing happened). But does this mean there is a sixth sense? No, in no way. |
i've never had a meaniful dream(meaning i cant remember it) about a plane |
Then let's assume that only about 10% of all people ever dream of a plane during their entire lifetime and do so only once (which would be extremely conservative). You'd still have about 1,000 people who were dreaming of a plane right before 9/11. 1,000 incredible stories! |
so maybe im missing the point of this. your saying if someone dreamed of 9/11 (a plane, or a building getting crashed into, whatever) it would be completely coincidence? |
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08/20/2008 07:15:54 PM · #30 |
| I do believe I have a 6th sense, but I also believe not everyone does. Some people only believe the evidence of their 5 senses. That's OK by me. |
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08/20/2008 07:16:06 PM · #31 |
Originally posted by JDubsgirl:
so maybe im missing the point of this. your saying if someone dreamed of 9/11 (a plane, or a building getting crashed into, whatever) it would be completely coincidence? |
What I'm saying is that by coincidence alone thousands of people will dream of planes the night before 9/11 (as on any other day). The fact that someone was dreaming of planes on that specific date therefore is no indication of anything supernatural like a sixth sense.
Similar effects are at play for most other incredible coincidences.
Let me play a little game with you: Let's say you go to a party with 50 people. What do you think is the probability that any two of them share the same birthday? Make a rough guess. |
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08/20/2008 07:16:47 PM · #32 |
Originally posted by pixelpig:
I do believe I have a 6th sense, but I also believe not everyone does. Some people only believe the evidence of their 5 senses. That's OK by me. |
Is there any way you could demonstrate your sixth sense? If yes, Randi is waiting with a million bucks for you. |
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08/20/2008 07:20:55 PM · #33 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by JDubsgirl:
so maybe im missing the point of this. your saying if someone dreamed of 9/11 (a plane, or a building getting crashed into, whatever) it would be completely coincidence? |
What I'm saying is that by coincidence alone thousands of people will dream of planes the night before 9/11 (as on any other day). The fact that someone was dreaming of planes on that specific date therefore is no indication of anything supernatural like a sixth sense.
Similar effects are at play for most other incredible coincidences.
Let me play a little game with you: Let's say you go to a party with 50 people. What do you think is the probability that any two of them share the same birthday? Make a rough guess. |
um, 2? well i dont really care if we disagree, im sure we disagree on a hell of alot more stuff then this, but its cool. |
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08/20/2008 07:25:11 PM · #34 |
Many things in life are a matter of opinion. Math is not among them... ;-)
What did you mean with "um, 2"? I was expecting something like a probability. Is there rather a 1%, 10%, 50% or 90% chance that you could find two people at a party of 50 sharing the same birthday? What's your estimate?
Message edited by author 2008-08-20 19:25:53. |
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08/20/2008 07:26:23 PM · #35 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Many things in life are a matter of opinion. Math is not among them... ;-)
What did you mean with "um, 2"? I was expecting something like a probability. Is there rather a 1%, 10%, 50% or 90% chance that any two people at a party of 50 share the same birthday? What's your estimate? |
i ment two out of the 50 people. so what, 4%? |
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08/20/2008 07:30:42 PM · #36 |
Ok, make sure you're comfortable in your seat: The probability of at least two people at a party of 50 sharing the same birthday is ... 97%!
Just 23 people suffice to raise the probability above 50%. With 30 people it's already at 70%.
Very counterintuitive, but it's true. This example shows that "strange coincidences" are far more common than we expect, just based on the math. |
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08/20/2008 07:31:43 PM · #37 |
| i think i confused myself |
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08/20/2008 07:45:01 PM · #38 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Ok, make sure you're comfortable in your seat: The probability of at least two people at a party of 50 sharing the same birthday is ... 97%!
Just 23 people suffice to raise the probability above 50%. With 30 people it's already at 70%.
Very counterintuitive, but it's true. This example shows that "strange coincidences" are far more common than we expect, just based on the math. |
Tis true, because the odds of 30 people in the same room, no two of which were born on the same day, starts getting up there as the numbers increase. Many people do not understand that random can mean duplicates. If you randomly generate 100 numbers and there are 100 slots, some will have two or more hits while others have none.
But then this goes right back to my random theory. When it comes to dreams/visions/6th sense/what have you... That if the hits are random, and the human race lasts long enough, then someone somewhere will have a perfect hit pattern. Just as if you randomly draw 100 numbers enough times, the odds say that eventually 1-100 will come up in order. (Exceedingly rare, but bound to happen in a large enough sample, just like the birthdays). So when this human comes along, whose random hits fall in line with events. How will Randy prove it was random or real, and does it make any difference, as long as the person keeps guessing correctly? |
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08/20/2008 07:50:50 PM · #39 |
 ambaker, Randi works with probabilities. If you beat the odds significantly you get the million dollars.
He's very good at coming up with simple test procedures. Here's an example: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvVftFZHXSI |
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08/20/2008 08:46:24 PM · #40 |
| You're probably referring to that eerie feeling we all get sometimes... |
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08/20/2008 09:11:02 PM · #41 |
My daughter who is 8 months old sometimes plays peak-a-boo with whomever in a direction that no one is near. Other times she'll look over you shoulder and start to laugh at what seems to be someone behind you making faces. A friend of mine has a daughter who use to play with an imaginary friend, a little girl who died in the woods. She would explain details about things that someone her age shouldn't know.
I hear these types of things quite often and after seeing these things first hand with my own daughter, makes me a believer. Ah, and one last thing. My wife's grandfather died a couple months ago who never got to meet his great granddaughter. Thats who we would guess is playing peek-a-boo with her.
Anyway...
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08/20/2008 09:32:03 PM · #42 |
| There are probably a few dozen senses that we don't "recognize". |
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08/20/2008 09:36:26 PM · #43 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
ambaker, Randi works with probabilities. If you beat the odds significantly you get the million dollars.
He's very good at coming up with simple test procedures. Here's an example: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvVftFZHXSI |
That's the crux of the problem. The probabilities are that at some point there will be a person whose random guesses coincide with the correct answers. Then what? How do we tell if it is lucky like the guy who lets money ride on a coin toss and keeps winning, or if it is real? If the answers are always right, then there is no test to disqualify the person. |
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08/20/2008 11:15:00 PM · #44 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Many, many, many things happen to you in life and to others as well. And sometimes they have something in common (of course, it's what you'd expect).
And with hindsight you can then attribute meaning to them.
If you think that a "sixth sense" exists that allows you to perceive information usually not available to people you could easily test its predictive power.
This would be very interesting and a major breakthrough in science. We would have to completely revise our understanding of the world. (Oh and by the way, Randi would give you $1,000,000 for just a little demonstration, you don't even have to explain anyting, just show it to him.) |
As I said, I have no control over it any more than I can control what random radio signals my computer speakers pick up. But I've had enough experiences that I'm sure are beyond coincidence to convince me not do dismiss it out of hand.
Since you seem to enjoy statistics, maybe you can figure the odds for me on this...
My friend's family and my family both spent one spring break (2 weeks) in Alberta, ours in Calgary and hers in a town about 50 miles away.
What would be the odds that we'd both decide to have our shopping day on the same day? (nobody had planned ahead, was all spur of the moment. It wasn't a weekend day, and was the only day in the two weeks that she visited Calgary.)
The odds of shopping in the same store on that day?
The odds of shopping in the same store at the same time?
The odds of running into each other in that same 4 storey store?
The odds of both deciding to buy a bathing suit that day? (April, NOT swim season)
The odds that, despite several racks of styles and prices, despite us having VERY different tastes and body types, we both ended up buying the same suit, in the same colour?
I'd be very curious to know what the odds are of all these events coming together :)
Hey, I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just wondering what the odds are.
(And wondering why it can't be possible to be something more than pure chance.)
eta; I do repeat, I do NOT believe it's possible to predict the future, but I DO believe that we may pick up some currently unrecognised form of communication from others. Science still has a lot to learn about the workings of the brain. This could very well be one of those things yet to be uncovered.
Message edited by author 2008-08-20 23:17:55. |
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08/20/2008 11:39:25 PM · #45 |
Message edited by author 2008-08-21 00:15:23. |
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08/20/2008 11:48:41 PM · #46 |
Originally posted by BeeCee:
As I said, I have no control over it any more than I can control what random radio signals my computer speakers pick up. |
Have your computer speakers ever picked up random radio signals? |
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08/20/2008 11:49:35 PM · #47 |
I knew there'd be a thread like this......
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08/21/2008 12:05:02 AM · #48 |
Originally posted by Louis:
Originally posted by BeeCee:
As I said, I have no control over it any more than I can control what random radio signals my computer speakers pick up. |
Have your computer speakers ever picked up random radio signals? |
Yup! Since we moved into this house the end of June they constantly do. |
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08/21/2008 01:50:43 AM · #49 |
Originally posted by ambaker:
Originally posted by Sam94720:
ambaker, Randi works with probabilities. If you beat the odds significantly you get the million dollars.
He's very good at coming up with simple test procedures. Here's an example: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvVftFZHXSI |
That's the crux of the problem. The probabilities are that at some point there will be a person whose random guesses coincide with the correct answers. Then what? How do we tell if it is lucky like the guy who lets money ride on a coin toss and keeps winning, or if it is real? If the answers are always right, then there is no test to disqualify the person. |
You are right, this probability exists. However, it is extremely low (probably in the area of winning the lottery or even worse) and a risk he's accepting. And please keep in mind, this works in favor of the psychic. Still, nobody has ever even passed his preliminary test (which is even simpler and has better odds for the claimant). |
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08/21/2008 02:21:02 AM · #50 |
Originally posted by BeeCee:
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Many, many, many things happen to you in life and to others as well. And sometimes they have something in common (of course, it's what you'd expect).
And with hindsight you can then attribute meaning to them.
If you think that a "sixth sense" exists that allows you to perceive information usually not available to people you could easily test its predictive power.
This would be very interesting and a major breakthrough in science. We would have to completely revise our understanding of the world. (Oh and by the way, Randi would give you $1,000,000 for just a little demonstration, you don't even have to explain anyting, just show it to him.) |
As I said, I have no control over it any more than I can control what random radio signals my computer speakers pick up. But I've had enough experiences that I'm sure are beyond coincidence to convince me not do dismiss it out of hand.
Since you seem to enjoy statistics, maybe you can figure the odds for me on this...
My friend's family and my family both spent one spring break (2 weeks) in Alberta, ours in Calgary and hers in a town about 50 miles away.
What would be the odds that we'd both decide to have our shopping day on the same day? (nobody had planned ahead, was all spur of the moment. It wasn't a weekend day, and was the only day in the two weeks that she visited Calgary.)
The odds of shopping in the same store on that day?
The odds of shopping in the same store at the same time?
The odds of running into each other in that same 4 storey store?
The odds of both deciding to buy a bathing suit that day? (April, NOT swim season)
The odds that, despite several racks of styles and prices, despite us having VERY different tastes and body types, we both ended up buying the same suit, in the same colour?
I'd be very curious to know what the odds are of all these events coming together :)
Hey, I'm not saying it couldn't happen, just wondering what the odds are.
(And wondering why it can't be possible to be something more than pure chance.)
eta; I do repeat, I do NOT believe it's possible to predict the future, but I DO believe that we may pick up some currently unrecognised form of communication from others. Science still has a lot to learn about the workings of the brain. This could very well be one of those things yet to be uncovered. |
The experience of meeting friends when you are on vacation is a common one. You know many people. Many people go on vacation. And people from similar regions with similar interest, similar budget (maybe kids at the same age, etc.) often end up at similar vacation destinations (often around the same time based on the school vacation of the kids). And it's likely that they end up visiting the same places. And then run into each other.
Maybe you missed another family at the same store the same day. Or on a different trip. However, you don't know about it and therefore don't remember it. You only remember the very rare instances where you ran into someone just by coincidence. And you then start looking for further coincidences. And you are likely to find them because there are so many things you could compare.
A few years ago I traveled through New Zealand with a group (trips like this one, to be recommended: //www.hikingnewzealand.com/new-zealand-hiking-vacation.htm). Everywhere we went I ran into somebody I knew. The people in the group got the impression I knew the whole world. But it was simple coincidences (New Zealand was and is a very popular destination and you end up visiting the same places). One day we went to a very remote campground that hardly anyone even knew existed and our guide said "Just to make sure we don't run into friends of Sam." When we finally got to the place in the middle of nowhere and stepped out of the van, the two only other people already there yelled "Hey Sam!". They were two Austrians I had met on the plane a few weeks before. And they were very glad to see us because they were on a shoe-string budget and we brought beer. ;-)
But again, simply a fun coincidence with no further meaning. By the way, what is the meaning you'd attribute to you and your friend buying the same bathing suit? And who would be behind this? And for what reason?
Originally posted by eostyles:
I hear these types of things quite often and after seeing these things first hand with my own daughter, makes me a believer. Ah, and one last thing. My wife's grandfather died a couple months ago who never got to meet his great granddaughter. Thats who we would guess is playing peek-a-boo with her. |
Please note that you make the connection between a harmless and typical child behavior and a deceased relative. And you then look for clues to support your "theory". And you'll find and later misremember them.
Psychics rely on this effect. This is a typical conversation someone (customer "c") might have with a psychic ("p").
p: I see something red, and there is something behind a shed and a name with "G".
c: My grandfather's name is George.
p: Yes, I can see a man. He's older than you.
c: Yes, yes, that's George. He died last year.
p: I see him talking to you from the other side. He says something about a woman with "A" and a house, a house at the beach. And something hot, it almost feels like metal.
c: We used to go on vacation in a small house at a lake, that's what you must mean.
etc.
The customer will then remember this conversation as "The psychic knew my grandfather George! And she told me about our vacations at the lake. How could she possibly have known that?". Note that the psychic made very vague guesses, most of them meaningless, and the customer chose some that might fit something and then provided the information. The customer also forgot about all the other guesses. And ignored the fact that the psychic referred to a house at the beach, which was not correct.
Happens all the time and is well documented. The technique is known as "cold reading". I've done it myself and it works well with people who are willing to believe in the supernatural.
Message edited by author 2008-08-21 02:24:56. |
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