Hot Stock Tip? - DPChallenge Forums

Canon EF 17-40mm f/4.0L USM

03/08/2004 08:04:51 PM · #1

You'd think it would be...but not really. When Canon announced the Rebel I started tracking the stock, since people seemed to think that it was going to turn the Photography world on it's collective ear. But interestingly - as you'll see in this chart - the stock has only gained 8% since the launch (the S&P 500 has gained almost 20% in the same period of time).

Of course Canon makes hundreds of other products so the real financial impact might not be that big. But the stock market often trades on emotional variables and intangibles (See Pfizer when they announced Viagra ;)), so I wondered if the "FIRST EVER SUB-$1000 dSLR!" would have such an impact.

Guess not...

Pedro

ps - this comment was not intended to offer advice or even give an opinion; just pointing out something that occupies the wee minds of stock brokers ;)

pps - Yes,I know it's a Japanese company, but it trades on the NYSE as an ADR, so it IS fair to compare it to a US index.

Jacko

Canon EOS-20D

03/08/2004 08:21:24 PM · #2

Still a 30% increase in value in the last year. Not to shabby. aaahhhh to have a crystal ball.

JEM

Sony DSC-F707

03/08/2004 08:57:01 PM · #3

Pedro - Jacko,
Sound advice from a friend, and an old pro,in the market you must always "Buy low - Sell high"!

Do this, and you can have second homes in the south of France and Mexico for the beautiful winter weather.

You two are immensely talented young fellows and so, you will recognize good advice when you see it.

pitsaman

Canon EOS-30D

Canon EF 50mm f/1.8 II

03/08/2004 09:19:36 PM · #4

44 bil market cap on 12 bil sales,most of the new stuff is allready priced in,but I see topping at 60-62 $ in next 6 months ! (now is 49.8 $)

Olympus 14-45mm f/3.5-5.6 Zuiko Digital ED

03/08/2004 09:22:58 PM · #5

Originally posted by JEM:

Newman! I knew I was doing something wrong ;)

I'll let you know when i figure out the formula how to do that every time, John :)

@pitsa: another 25 points in 6 months? I'd love to say I agree with you, but I'm not sure I'm that optimistic. Ahhh, I love the smell of a bull market...

jdw91479

Olympus E-300 EVOLT

03/08/2004 10:18:29 PM · #6

The begining of this month I started a stock market game with some of the 6th graders I work with. Each was given $100,000 in game money and they picked 5 stocks the first week. They have to trade at least 3 each week and purchase 3 more. The biggest gaining stock in the last week (that one of the students picked) was Snap-On tools (SNA). This is the first time these kids have had any experience w/ the stock market. I'm doing all this research and they're outgaining me.. haha.

Now I give you the opportunity to outgain me as well.
Go to //www.stocksquest.com and sign up with an account.
Then go to Join a Contest
Contest Name: DPChallenge
Password: DPChallenge
(both are case sensitive)

Make sure when you log in that you click on the DPChallenge contest on the left to trade in the portfolio.
Have fun with it if you want to enter. I hope no one complains that I made a contest titled DPChallenge.

Message edited by author 2004-03-09 08:39:17.

jdw91479

Olympus E-300 EVOLT

Olympus 14-45mm f/3.5-5.6 Zuiko Digital ED

03/09/2004 08:38:45 AM · #7

bump

03/09/2004 10:24:22 AM · #8

Hey J.D.,
I won't give the whole sermon, but be a little careful about teaching 6th graders that investing in the stock market is akin to daytrading, which is what this contest amounts to. 60% portfolio rollover per week is quite often referred to as 'Churning' by those who regulate my life...:)

on the flipside - good on ya for taking the time to teach kids some life skills that many rarely have ever received, much less my the age of 12. I can dig up some good resources for you on the web if you like (many of the ones I have are Canadian, but I'm sure I could find some that are not product specific that will work.

Pedro

ps depending where you are in Montana, I might know a broker or two willing to come out and give a talk to the kids...on a volunteer basis of course ;)

Originally posted by jdw91479:

Gordon

RIM BlackBerry Curve

Canon EF 85mm f/1.8 USM

03/09/2004 10:32:34 AM · #9

Originally posted by Pedro:

It might be a real good lesson if the market drops and they lose it all too :)

I think it is a great idea, if framed in the proper context, with the caveats about day trading. I doubt you could make it very interesting for 6th graders if they had to wait until retirement to see how they did though so I can understand the weekly churn factor to keep it interesting.

03/09/2004 10:53:29 AM · #10

Originally posted by Gordon:

Originally posted by Pedro:
Hey J.D.,
I won't give the whole sermon, but be a little careful about teaching 6th graders that investing in the stock market is akin to daytrading, which is what this contest amounts to. 60% portfolio rollover per week is quite often referred to as 'Churning' by those who regulate my life...:)

It might be a real good lesson if the market drops and they lose it all too :)

I think it is a great idea, if framed in the proper context, with the caveats about day trading. I doubt you could make it very interesting for 6th graders if they had to wait until retirement to see how they did though so I can understand the weekly churn factor to keep it interesting.

You're absolutely right on both counts. Unfortunately the stats show more than 80% of day-traders end up on the losing end. Even at a discounted 1% commission on both ends, they'd have to gain 2% per week to break even...that's about 100% return per year to break even (a little less given only three required trades per week, but you get my point).

Kids being kids, that's a hard lesson to undo if they lose on their first foray into it. Hell that's a hard lesson for grown-ups ;)

I've actually been looking for something to use with kids that avoids this...pretty tough.

Gordon

RIM BlackBerry Curve

Canon EF 85mm f/1.8 USM

03/09/2004 10:56:35 AM · #11

Originally posted by Pedro:

I've actually been looking for something to use with kids that avoids this...pretty tough.

What might be good would be an historical simulation, with each week being a year or even a decade - you can look how investments perform over time, while still giving perhaps a more optimistic and conservative approach to investing, rather than day trading ?

You could look at the performance of indices vs individual portfolios or stuff. Dunno if there are any websites or software to help with this though.

03/09/2004 11:05:59 AM · #12

Originally posted by Gordon:

Originally posted by Pedro:

I've actually been looking for something to use with kids that avoids this...pretty tough.

What might be good would be an historical simulation, with each week being a year or even a decade - you can look how investments perform over time, while still giving perhaps a more optimistic and conservative approach to investing, rather than day trading ?

You could look at the performance of indices vs individual portfolios or stuff. Dunno if there are any websites or software to help with this though.

That's exactly the model I have been using...unfortunately there's always one kid who asks his parents and they give him the ticker symbol for some goofy stock like Nortel that went up 1000% in six weeks. Indexes and funds tend to help that a bit. The downside is not seeing how news affects them as it happens etc.

thanks for the thoughts.

P

Gordon

RIM BlackBerry Curve

Canon EF 85mm f/1.8 USM

03/09/2004 11:08:37 AM · #13

Originally posted by Pedro:

Yup, the lack of news and the impact of news is a downside. Maybe there is a lesson in either the fact that all knowledge is priced in based on existing news, or the problems of insider trading, in the cases when some kid gets knowledge that everyone else doesn't have ? :) You could have your own little re-enactment of the Martha Stewart case...