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08/14/2007 12:21:32 AM · #76 |
Originally posted by Prof_Fate:
Originally posted by levyj413:
Global warming is real and it's happening now. Al Gore didn't make it up. And I'd bet a lot of money he didn't make the definite prediction that was claimed in the first post.
Yes, Gore has made some silly claims in the past. So what? Have you ever made a mistake? Does that mean everyone should ignore everything you say forever?
But you know what? Ignore him and just pay attention to the thousands, yes, THOUSANDS of scientists across the planet that agree with him.
And for the record, there's plenty of ice on Greenland and Antarctica to raise sea levels well beyond three feet.
But I'm guessing those of you who so flippantly dismiss it aren't troubled by things like facts, so I'll just set this thread to ignore. |
30 years ago (mid 70s) the big scientific fears were:
an iminent ice age - yes, the earth was cooling.
no more fossil fuels - we'd run dry by the year 2000.
the hole in the ozone layer was going to cook us all and we'd all die of skin cancer.
Hmm, now the earth is warming.
we still have oil. using lots more of it than we did 30 years ago too.
the ozone hole is pretty much gone. and we have SPF 50 just in case.
We aren't ignoring 'facts' but asking for proof that they are indeed 'facts' and not some form or manipulation of the masses. |
Well stated! |
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08/14/2007 12:29:12 AM · #77 |
| Isn't the hole in the ozone gone because scientists brought it to the public's attention and the world banned CFC's? Maybe I'm just crazy thinking that's what happened? |
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08/14/2007 12:33:10 AM · #78 |
Originally posted by Prof_Fate:
70% of the world is covered by water.
Ice floats.
The only 'extra' water to raise the oceans has to come from ice on land.
How much ice is on land?
I doubt enough to flood Florida...if the water goes up 3 feet i'd be surprised. |
Uhhhh, ever heard of antarctica or greenland? |
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08/14/2007 12:33:14 AM · #79 |
How about this for a fact?
The Muir Glacier in Alaska as it was in 1941, left, and in 2004, by which time it had receded significantly and lost 2,100 feet in elevation.
This page has some really cool, amazing before and after pictures of glacial retreat.
//www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/glaciers.html
Message edited by author 2007-08-14 00:41:03. |
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08/14/2007 12:33:31 AM · #80 |
Originally posted by PapaBob:
Originally posted by Prof_Fate:
Originally posted by levyj413:
Global warming is real and it's happening now. Al Gore didn't make it up. And I'd bet a lot of money he didn't make the definite prediction that was claimed in the first post.
Yes, Gore has made some silly claims in the past. So what? Have you ever made a mistake? Does that mean everyone should ignore everything you say forever?
But you know what? Ignore him and just pay attention to the thousands, yes, THOUSANDS of scientists across the planet that agree with him.
And for the record, there's plenty of ice on Greenland and Antarctica to raise sea levels well beyond three feet.
But I'm guessing those of you who so flippantly dismiss it aren't troubled by things like facts, so I'll just set this thread to ignore. |
30 years ago (mid 70s) the big scientific fears were:
an iminent ice age - yes, the earth was cooling.
no more fossil fuels - we'd run dry by the year 2000.
the hole in the ozone layer was going to cook us all and we'd all die of skin cancer.
Hmm, now the earth is warming.
we still have oil. using lots more of it than we did 30 years ago too.
the ozone hole is pretty much gone. and we have SPF 50 just in case.
We aren't ignoring 'facts' but asking for proof that they are indeed 'facts' and not some form or manipulation of the masses. |
Well stated! |
This is true, hence why I stopped listening to all scientists ever since they got that whole earth is at the center of the universe thing wrong. |
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08/14/2007 12:44:26 AM · #81 |
Originally posted by JeffDay:
The Oprah show was repeated last week and yes he said 'in the next 10 years' which would be 2015 based on when it originally aired. |
Well, I gotta see a clip, because I can't find it. Can't someone just stop saying "dude, believe me, he said it." and provide a clip? Everything is covered these days and if Gore made such a crazy assertion, it would be out there.
Ultimately I don't need to change your minds though. All I have to do is keep scientific naieves out of public office... |
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08/14/2007 12:44:43 AM · #82 |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Isn't the hole in the ozone gone because scientists brought it to the public's attention and the world banned CFC's? Maybe I'm just crazy thinking that's what happened? |
If we bring back CFC's maybe we could start cooling the earth! |
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08/14/2007 12:53:24 AM · #83 |
The scientests don't necessarily disagree about global warming... what they disagree on is what is causing it. Some blame man while others say if man wasn't hear it wouldn't make but a few degrees difference in the global warming because it's a cyclic affect that happens with our without us. I'm sure we have contributed, but when you have a single volcano that can erupt and put out more polutants in an hour than most major cities can in a year (or what ever the figure is) and there are a lot of volcanos blowing all the time, what's really to blame?
And what most people seem to over look is that here in the US, we could stop driving any type of vehical that uses fossile fules, stop all industries that expel gases into the air, never mow our lawns again with a gas lawn mower and never BBQ again and it won't make one bit of difference once China gets a car or two or three in ever garage (once they get garages)and discover the freedom of going everywhere by motor vehical rather than by bike or walking. They are going to throw more pollutants into the air than the US and Europe combined for the last 100 years. And all of that is going to hit the West coast of the US as acid rain and snog. If we can get sand from the Sahara dust storms here on the West coast, it won't be any problem at all to have noxious fumes blow across with the jet stream.
Our only chance is to invent the perfect electric battery for electric cars and let them steal it from us so they can use it to make electric cars for their billions of drivers.
Of course that doesn't change the fact that Gore really is an idiot.
Mike
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08/14/2007 01:07:58 AM · #84 |
I know we are having climate changes but here is what gets me.
If climate scientist cannot predict the landfall of a hurricane within 10% certainty only 48 hours out or prevent it's landfall completely. How can they convince the majority of people that there predictions of global warming will create a global disaster if we don't do anything about it within 10 years. Some estimate with a 90% certainty in 50 years it would be catastrophic.
We have a "cone of probability" on all storms. Where is the "cone of probability" on global warming.
ETA: for the record I feel we all need to do what we can to protect ourselves and the earth, including conservation and new resources. But what evidence says we will not be call "global cooling" 30 years for now.
Message edited by author 2007-08-14 01:11:10. |
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08/14/2007 01:20:47 AM · #85 |
This is a pretty interesting find. According to NOAA:
"Global combustion of fossil fuels and other materials places almost 7 billion tons of carbon, in the form of CO2, into the atmosphere each year. On average, Earth's oceans, trees, plants and soils absorb about one-half of this carbon. The balance remains in the air and is responsible for the annual increase."
And, according to another study:
The concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from 310 ppm in 1960 to 375 ppm in 2005. That's a 21% increase in 45 years.
NCAR has this really nifty little overview of the last 100 years of climate activity:
1. Solar activity contributed to a warming trend in global average temperature from the 1910s through 1930s.
2. As industrial activity increased following World War II, sun-blocking sulfates and other aerosol emissions helped lead to a slight global cooling from the 1940s to 1970s.
3. Since 1980, the rise in greenhouse gas emissions from human activity has overwhelmed the aerosol effect to produce overall global warming.
From: How Do We Know The Earth Is Warming Now?
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08/14/2007 01:40:58 AM · #86 |
Originally posted by swhiddon:
If climate scientist cannot predict the landfall of a hurricane within 10% certainty only 48 hours out or prevent it's landfall completely.
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Scientists can predict it very accurate, the only problem is there is not enough computational power.
Further the problem of whether prediction is not as simple as it seems, to predict it accurately, they have to solve navier-stokes equations, for which we have no easy solution. (I guess navier-stokes is one of those million dollar problems). |
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08/14/2007 01:41:17 AM · #87 |
LOL. On the off chance, PapaBob and Prof_Fate, that you sincerely, really do want to read something factual about ozone depletion ...
The ozone hole is NOT gone. Look on the graph at the top of page 23 of this FAQ from the 2006 assessment of ozone depletion (note: it's a PDF).
Then read the rest of the piece. You'll learn that globally, ozone levels are about 4% below the norm.
To say you "only want proof" obligates you to actually read something from the scientists who study the issue, not just spout off. If you just keep throwing out fictions and refuse to accept anything, then there's no point in discussing it.
FWIW, ozone depletion is probably the best-documented environmental problem in history. Again, hundreds of scientists the world over study it and report on it every four years. Keep in mind that the Montreal Protocol, the international treaty that banned CFCs and HCFCs, and is now working to get rid of the rest of the ozone depleting substances, was signed under Reagan and strengthened under Bush I. There is zero ... ZERO ... uncertainty that CFCs, HCFCs damaged the ozone layer and continue to damage it.
Or are you really going to argue that, somehow, a small group of plotters somehow fooled the entire world into action through fakery?
The good news is that by banning those chemicals, the ozone layer is on the path to recovery. Had we done nothing, you could've taken the left part of the graph on p. 45 and just kept on trucking downward. It's just a farce to claim that concerns about ozone depletion are no longer here, or that they were false. Things aren't as bad as the potential because the world took action.
Let's say you had cancer and your doctor told you "with treatment, you have a 90% chance of recovery, but without it, you'll die." If you got treated and then went on to live a long life, would you later say "those silly doctors - obviously they were wrong."
And just to head off several other myths about ozone depletion, please read this information on U.S. EPA's site. It's not the sun, it's not volcanoes, it's not chlorine from the oceans, etc.
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08/14/2007 01:48:11 AM · #88 |
Originally posted by PapaBob:
If we bring back CFC's maybe we could start cooling the earth! |
Nope. CFCs are thousands of times more powerful as greenhouse gases than CO2. Good old CFC-12, aka "freon" that was used in car air conditioning until 1993, is about 10,000 times better at trapping heat than CO2.
See the right side of the chart at the top of p. 42 of the FAQ I mentioned above. Note that CO2 has a value of one on that chart.
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08/14/2007 02:19:31 AM · #89 |
I just watched segments 1, 2, 3 and 4 of the Al Gore on Oprah segments on Youtube. It's easy to find by doing a search of "Al Gore Oprah". He doesn't say Florida, San Francisco and China will be flooded in 10 years, but that we will reach a point in 10 years when it will be much harder to turn back and correct the situation. He shows the flooding of coastal areas, but I don't think he gave dates for those. During the hour they give a whole 90 seconds to playing and then rebutting a skeptic's report. Watch the Olympics in Beijing and you'll see where polution is really bad. I think the biggest danger to the environment is when there are a billion Chinese driving cars paid for by the poisonous products they are selling us.
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08/14/2007 02:31:06 AM · #90 |
Levyj, If you think I am saying there is no such thing as global warming I am not saying that. I agree we need to find better ways to generate power and cleaner ways to transport people but I do not agree with Al Gore's dooms day speeches! I do not trust Al Gore or the special interests he aligns him self with. This is the same man who had enough concern for the environment that had a river drained for a photo shoot.
Plain and simple I do not trust Al Gore or support his end of world propaganda. And as for the CFC's I should have had the smiley face, that was was just a little sarcasm.
Message edited by author 2007-08-14 02:34:24. |
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08/14/2007 02:44:29 AM · #91 |
| As a side note, I have always poked fun at all the regulations California has for their air quality, but I also give them all the credit for having cleaner air today than they had in the 60's and 70's and know it all is because they took the necessary steps to make and enforce regulations. I do not have an issue with taking the appropriate action, my issue is with the end of world tactics. |
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08/14/2007 02:45:18 AM · #92 |
Originally posted by PapaBob:
I do not trust Al Gore or the special interests he aligns him self with. This is the same man who had enough concern for the environment that had a river drained for a photo shoot. |
No. In fact, he was accused of raising the level of the CT River for a photo op. But even that wasn't true; it was the Secret Service. Oh. and more water was good for the environment and it was water they were going to release anyway a few hours later. But who needs facts, right?
Rolling Stone article
Maybe you should go back and research every stupid, outlandish thing you've heard about Gore. If you're really willing to hear proof, then maybe you'll learn how ridiculous people get over this stuff.
I don't really care much about Gore himself, but I do care very much that decisions are made by voters who don't bother to check anything out, take the craziest claims at face value, and then spread those falsehoods.
And maybe you were kidding about bringing back CFCs, but you agreed with Prof _Fate about several items, including his claim that ozone depletion was bunk.
We do agree on one thing: hyperbole is bad, and ultimately damages your own credibility. Like, say, claims that ozone depletion is bunk or that Al Gore drained a river.
Message edited by author 2007-08-14 08:17:57.
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08/14/2007 04:57:55 AM · #93 |
Originally posted by swhiddon:
If climate scientist cannot predict the landfall of a hurricane within 10% certainty only 48 hours out or prevent it's landfall completely.
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Imagine trying to predict the movement of a mosquito over the course of a few seconds to the nearest few centimetres (aka weather forecasting and a hurricane weather pattern). Then imagine trying to predict the movement of a supertanker over the course of an hour within a mile or two (aka global climate predictions).
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08/14/2007 05:40:49 AM · #94 |
Originally posted by Prof_Fate:
30 years ago (mid 70s) the big scientific fears were:
an iminent ice age - yes, the earth was cooling.
no more fossil fuels - we'd run dry by the year 2000.
the hole in the ozone layer was going to cook us all and we'd all die of skin cancer.
Hmm, now the earth is warming.
we still have oil. using lots more of it than we did 30 years ago too.
the ozone hole is pretty much gone. and we have SPF 50 just in case.
We aren't ignoring 'facts' but asking for proof that they are indeed 'facts' and not some form or manipulation of the masses. |
You appear to have been mistaken in your recollection of 1970/80s fears:
1. the CFC issue was and remains a serious problem;
2. the predictions were that “peak oil” production would happen in 1995, but the discovery of new oil reserves has pushed that date back to 2006-2012 (or even 2037 by the US DoE) and the problem has been partially offset by increased reliance on unconventional oil extraction techniques. Because we don’t know exactly how much oil is left (and it is in various peoples’ interests to over or underestimate reserves), the precise date is unclear. However, no-one denies that (if it has not already happened) it will happen “soon”. Indeed, international politics do seem already to be heading towards a period of energy nationalism (eg Iran, Iraq, Venezuela).
3. As for the failure to predict the warming impact of greenhouse gasses over the cooling effect of particulates, predictions are of necessity made based on past performance. It is entirely possible that some entirely new and unpredicted or unpredictable phenomenon will change the way that the climate reacts. However, it is one thing to look back over the course of history and identify times when unpredicted events occurred, and entirely another to base your current actions and future plans on the assumption that such an event will occur imminently.
Since two of the three “facts” that you questioned turned out to be true, do you have more comfort in relying on the predictions of today?
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08/14/2007 05:53:06 AM · #95 |
Originally posted by Jason_Cross:
Oprah asks "what can we do about this?" and Gore says, "buy the DVD". |
Can this DVD be used as a floatation device? |
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08/14/2007 06:05:24 AM · #96 |
Originally posted by Art Roflmao:
Originally posted by Jason_Cross:
Oprah asks "what can we do about this?" and Gore says, "buy the DVD". |
Can this DVD be used as a floatation device? |
i bought a copy of the DVD.
printed on the box, it says, "break disc in half to cut wrist to escape drowning death" |
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08/14/2007 06:07:14 AM · #97 |
Originally posted by crayon:
Originally posted by Art Roflmao:
Originally posted by Jason_Cross:
Oprah asks "what can we do about this?" and Gore says, "buy the DVD". |
Can this DVD be used as a floatation device? |
i bought a copy of the DVD.
printed on the box, it says, "break disc in half to cut wrist to escape drowning death" |
Hmmm, well that sounds depressing. Is there at least a rebate in the form of carbon credits? |
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08/14/2007 01:55:41 PM · #98 |
mmmmm carbon.  |
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08/14/2007 03:26:36 PM · #99 |
| The facts of science constantly evolve from Trial and Error. When we found out the earth was not flat, we still thought it was in the center of our universe. Now that we know that is false, it's time to get some other things right, like knowing that global warming is a complete hoax and how weather is manipulated by man. |
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08/14/2007 03:48:30 PM · #100 |
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