Know When You'll Win - DPChallenge Forums

Sony 16-50mm f/3.5-5.6 E-mount

12/12/2003 10:07:17 PM · #1

Dunno about anyone else, but wouldn't folks know, from their first intial score, whether they will win a ribbon or at least come close to it?

I mean, if your intial score is above a 6.5 - 6.8, then couldn't you assume that you will win or come close to winning a ribbon, especially since the scores don;t deviate that much from this intial score?

For example, the MOney challenge. I had an idea that the scores would be lower than normal just bc the majority of shots were lacking a bit of the wow factor. And so it turned out that the blue ribbon shot scored a 6.8 or something.

Unlike the simplicity challenge, which I think will have higher scores just by the sheer volume of good shots in it.

So, if folks are scoring less than, let's say, a 6.9 - 7.2, like myself, are we not guarateed to not win? And if folks are scoring above that, let's say, say close to the mid 7 range, can't those fotogs make a very good guess that they will win a ribbon?

jmsetzler

Sony Alpha a6000

12/12/2003 10:14:10 PM · #2

Your 'initial' score is based on a very small sample of votes i would assume. How many votes do you use to determine what your initial score is?

Nikon AF-S Nikkor 17-35mm f/2.8D IF-ED

12/12/2003 10:20:32 PM · #3

WEll, I don;t do any math for it. Just check the score for the first time about mid day the first voting day. This what I define as intial. This score really doesnt deviate much. In fact, the score will go up, then down, then back up again, but only fractionally.This time around for the simplsicity challenge, I start off with about 67 votes with a score of 6.1. Have stayed steady at that since then.

RiderGal

Nikon D300

12/12/2003 10:20:42 PM · #4

First Place in the Money Category...

Less then 7.0 on final score

My FOURTH place finish in sports

over 7.0 during most of the voting and at the end!

You never know whats going to happen in a challenge unless you have close to an 8 for the entire voting... then thats a pretty good sign that you are going to ribbon! You just never know...

Canon EF 100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS

12/12/2003 10:22:41 PM · #5

Originally posted by RiderGal:

First Place in the Money Category... Less then 7.0 on final score

My FOURTH place finish in sports over 7.0 during most of the voting and at the end!

Dunno about you, but I knoew your shot was going to win. It was the best, IMO. But if you have some idea, after checking out all the shots, whether the votes will be high or not, couldnt you guessitmate from there on based on your score?

You never know whats going to happen in a challenge unless you have close to an 8 for the entire voting... then thats a pretty good sign that you are going to ribbon! You just never know...

ellamay

Canon EOS-1D Mark II

12/12/2003 10:23:56 PM · #6

I started current challenge with 6.7 am down to 5.7, ya never can tell on dpc

Canon RF 24-70mm f/2.8 L IS

12/12/2003 10:30:29 PM · #7

Originally posted by ellamay:

I started current challenge with 6.7 am down to 5.7, ya never can tell on dpc

Wow! How many votes were cast at 6.7? Bc I'm not saying that the first score you get is it but rather that, at some midway point, from the intial score, wouldn't one be able to tell what their outcome wil be.

Maybe the intial score thing is deceptive. My intial score was with 67 votes.

kirbic

Canon EOS R5

12/13/2003 10:59:17 AM · #8

Normally after about 40-50 votes, I can pretty much guess where I will wind up score-wise, but I do encounter different trends, e.g. some photos seem to rise during the week, others fall, my most recent went up every morning and down every evening (hmmm...)
As far as guessing my percentile or place, it's a real crap shoot, since the overall quality of the field varies.

Beagleboy

Canon EOS-30D

Tokina AF 12-24mm f/4.0 AT-X Pro DX

12/13/2003 01:14:21 PM · #9

Originally posted by ellamay:

I started current challenge with 6.7 am down to 5.7, ya never can tell on dpc

I always laugh a bit when I see a statement like this. I make it a point never to check out my score before the end of the first day of voting. Any result with less than 30 votes has no statistical value whatsoever. The sample is just too small. I prefer working with bigger samples.

Once the votes reach over 75, I pretty much know that I'll be looking at a similar score at challenge end.

The biggest surprise I got was for the Lighting challenge.

When I was comparing my score to previous challenges, I really thought I was going to score "Top 10", but there were lots of nice shots and I finished 14th. A good result, but I really wanted a "Top 10" finish.

Artifacts

Canon EOS-5D Mark II

Canon EF 24-105mm f/4.0L IS

12/13/2003 03:02:09 PM · #10

There are no guarantees about winning a ribbon or not. There have been at least case when an image scored above 7 and did not even make the top 10.

It is not unreasonable to think if you have a score over 6.8 with 100 or more votes that you may be in the runing for one.

In that case you might consider submiting a DQ request on your own image. That way you can submit proof that it is valid and avoid the pain and embarrassment of getting DQed after winners have been posted. It is the pits when a winning image gets rescinded after the fact.

moodville

Nikon D100

12/13/2003 03:18:41 PM · #11

On the same line of thinking as this thread I'm wondering if it would be possible (or even wanted) to have a current rank along with the score. It would be fun to see that you are currently ranked 90th out of 100 submissions with your score of 4.5 etc. Watching your score is fun, but after a few days it rarely changes for the +/- 0.05 or something. Watching you go from 90th to 80th in 24 hours adds more of a competition feeling to those that like that. It could also solve some of the disappointment people get when think they're gonna win a ribbon with a 6.9 and find out they finish 10th. On the other hand some of the surprise of finishing better than you expected is lost too.

smellyfish1002

Canon EOS-20D

Canon EF 70-200mm f/4.0L USM

12/13/2003 04:25:33 PM · #12

I recently won a second place ribbon. After the first half day of voting, my score was fluctuating between 7.5 and 7.8!! I was blown away. It ended up dropping to around 7.1.

When I won my blue ribbon, the score started over 8.0!! It eventually steadied out at 6.9, which was good enough for the win in that challenge.

i almost always start higher than my ending score...

JD

Neil

Fujifilm X-T30

Nikon AF-S NIKKOR 24-70mm f/2.8G ED

12/13/2003 04:40:12 PM · #13

Originally posted by moodville:

I think that would be great, personally!

GeneralE

Canon PowerShot S3 IS

Canon 12x IS USM (S3 IS built-in Lens) -- 36-432mm (35mm EQ)

12/13/2003 04:40:57 PM · #14

Originally posted by moodville:

On the same line of thinking as this thread I'm wondering if it would be possible (or even wanted) to have a current rank along with the score. . .

I fear that this would just spur further rumor-mongering about vote manipulation.

EddyG

Canon EOS-1D Mark II

Canon EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS USM

12/13/2003 05:15:42 PM · #15

Originally posted by moodville:

I'm wondering if it would be possible (or even wanted) to have a current rank along with the score. It would be fun to see that you are currently ranked 90th out of 100 submissions with your score of 4.5 etc.

I think this would be a great addition if and only if your score was hidden until you clicked my proposed "Finalize My Votes" button (which would lock in your scores, but allow you to continue to comment on images.) Actually, regardless of whether or not the "current rank" feature is added, I still think it would be beneficial to have scores hidden until after you've finished voting.

Another possibility would be to just show your current percentile (top 10%, top 20%, top 30%, rounded to closest 10%) so there would still be the element of surprise, while providing an idea of "where you were in the field".

Message edited by author 2003-12-13 17:17:13.

cbeller

Nikon D300

Nikon AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor 16-85 f/3.5-5.6G ED VR

12/13/2003 05:17:01 PM · #16

Originally posted by GeneralE:

Originally posted by moodville:
On the same line of thinking as this thread I'm wondering if it would be possible (or even wanted) to have a current rank along with the score. . .

I fear that this would just spur further rumor-mongering about vote manipulation.

I agree with the General on this. If someone sees they are close to being in the running, they could go enter a 1 for everyone to try and bump up their rank. I'm sure it's a very small number that would even consider something like this, but unfortunately there are probably a few, none the less.

Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS

12/13/2003 06:21:19 PM · #17

Originally posted by cbeller:

Originally posted by GeneralE:
Originally posted by moodville:
On the same line of thinking as this thread I'm wondering if it would be possible (or even wanted) to have a current rank along with the score. . .

I fear that this would just spur further rumor-mongering about vote manipulation.

I agree with the General on this. If someone sees they are close to being in the running, they could go enter a 1 for everyone to try and bump up their rank. I'm sure it's a very small number that would even consider something like this, but unfortunately there are probably a few, none the less.

I can;t imagin people would do that. I mean, you don;t really win anything other than recognition & thats only for a week. I can;t fathom why anyone would rate a great photo 1 just to get there photos a better shot of winning. It seems impossible to do since one vote counts for so little.

Harz_Joerg

Canon PowerShot G3

12/13/2003 06:38:56 PM · #18

I wouldn't change a thing: if one knows the own ranking, after a few days the excitment will go, even if you stand very high. The way it is now keeps the tension for a week because you never know how the others do.

JÃ¶rg

Konador

Canon EOS-500D Rebel T1i

12/13/2003 07:32:59 PM · #19

The first couple of days in Soft Focus I had a 7.2-7.5 score, and then i went down and down and down to 6.7

GeneralE

Canon PowerShot S3 IS

Canon 12x IS USM (S3 IS built-in Lens) -- 36-432mm (35mm EQ)

12/13/2003 10:04:08 PM · #20

Originally posted by Konador:

The first couple of days in Soft Focus I had a 7.2-7.5 score, and then i went down and down and down to 6.7

I'd like to get a 6.7 ... :(

But I agree that after the first 50-75 votes the score rarely moves more than 0.5 points.

moodville

Nikon D100

12/13/2003 10:48:04 PM · #21

Originally posted by EddyG:

Originally posted by moodville:
I'm wondering if it would be possible (or even wanted) to have a current rank along with the score. It would be fun to see that you are currently ranked 90th out of 100 submissions with your score of 4.5 etc.

I think this would be a great addition if and only if your score was hidden until you clicked my proposed "Finalize My Votes" button (which would lock in your scores, but allow you to continue to comment on images.) Actually, regardless of whether or not the "current rank" feature is added, I still think it would be beneficial to have scores hidden until after you've finished voting.

I see some good and bad points with that. Good being that people wouldnt vote others down, and to be honest I hadnt thought of that when I suggested the above. I cant believe people would actually do that, but I suppose it's always a possibility due to human nature. A few bad things being 1) some people may rush through voting to get their scores, 2) people who dont have enough time to vote for all of the photos will either not be able to see their score at all for the week or who would be locked out from voting on others after they've stopped voting for the 20%. I think most people enjoy seeing their scores, even when they go down in hope it may go back up, and potentially stopping people from seeing them unless they vote and vote early seems to 'punish' those who dont have as much time as others because of a few (I hope) people who downgrade pictures they think will score higher than them.

Of course I could be wrong!

Canon EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS USM

12/14/2003 01:33:40 AM · #22

I like things the way they are as well. I think folks will generally know or have a really good idea when they will win. So changing things & placing conditions on when & how folks get to see their standings wouldnt necessarily change folks from voting other shots down. Besides, I have a hard time believing that people even do that. I mean what's the point? No matter what you do, you can't change or control how others are voting your own picture.

Message edited by author 2003-12-14 01:34:24.

EddyG

Canon EOS-1D Mark II

12/14/2003 01:40:13 AM · #23

Originally posted by Rooster:

Besides, I have a hard time believing that people even do that. I mean what's the point? No matter what you do, you can't change or control how others are voting your own picture.

It may be hard for you to believe, but I believe it happens more often than people think. Take for example, the post in this thread:

Originally posted by drgsoell:

This is actually a good idea. I never thought so until the current challenge. My picture started out much lower than I expected and dropped further still. At that point I was depressed enough that, as I looked at other pictures, I thought "This isn't as good as mine. I must score it low, low, low." Luckily I realized what I was thinking and did not vote on anything right away. I stopped for a couple days to calm down and went back with a fresh outlook and judged pictures on their own merit instead of in comparison with mine. It's scary to think about what I almost did.

drgsoell had the guts to admit his desire to react this way because of his score. I think others feel that way but don't have the guts to admit it, but score pictures lowe anyway. I think hiding the scores would be beneficial...

Message edited by author 2003-12-14 01:40:57.

12/14/2003 01:48:48 AM · #24

Hey Eddy!

I've read that thread. I think maybe that would be a cool thing to do, to be able to see who voted what score. Seems like a rather huge task though, dunno.

I was just thinking that even if people do that(& it's my nature to think the best of people, most tmes) does it even matter? Afterall it's so fractional each vote.