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DPChallenge Forums >> General Discussion >> Scientists convicted of manslaughter for failure
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 10/23/2012 03:42:54 PM · #1
Wow, just wow. This is a real horror story.

Six seismologists (earthquake scientists) were just convicted in Italy for FAILING TO PREDICT AN EARTHQUAKE ACCURATELY!

The simple fact is that this is still beyond our capabilities, and this might be the most damaging ruling in the history of modern society in terms of scientific freedoms and honesty.

10/23/2012 03:47:14 PM · #2
Science knows everything - I hear it on DPC all the time - they should rot in jail.
 10/23/2012 03:50:45 PM · #3
Originally posted by Art Roflmao:
Science knows everything - I hear it on DPC all the time - they should rot in jail.


Religion knows everything. I hear that everywhere, not just DPC. Maybe those scientists can ask the clergy for recommendations on the best cell blocks?
 10/23/2012 03:55:10 PM · #4
No shock that it's in Italy, home to the Vatican.
 10/23/2012 03:55:37 PM · #5
Since the tradition of killing the messenger who carries bad news goes back to Roman days, it only makes sense that an Italian court would come to this conclusion. I wonder how long it will be before we can sue people for not finding a cure for cancer, or for not making me that jet pack I have always thought I would have by now.
 10/23/2012 03:56:31 PM · #6
Yeah that whole situation was bull
 10/23/2012 03:57:27 PM · #7
Ok, derailing sarcasm aside - on topic: the ruling, actually the charges are absurd.
 10/23/2012 04:04:18 PM · #8
No doubt about it, that trial was a contrived circus. It is plainly astonishing that they could actually be charged, much less convicted. Surely there must be an appeals process.
 10/23/2012 04:07:57 PM · #9
I feel that the only appropriate punishment is to entirely deprive Italy of it's scientists and all other science related fields. (Docs, technology, etc).

Heck, this sort of thing makes the entire Middle East look scientist-friendly, and that's really saying something!
 10/23/2012 04:11:37 PM · #10
Originally posted by Cory:
I feel that the only appropriate punishment is to entirely deprive Italy of it's scientists and all other science related fields. (Docs, technology, etc).

Heck, this sort of thing makes the entire Middle East look scientist-friendly, and that's really saying something!


That is the logical conclusion to this circus: No scientist will accept to work in Italy due to the chilling effect of this absurd trial and ruling.
 10/23/2012 04:14:57 PM · #11
Geologists are held to a higher standard... it's understandable. They are always the movie heroes.

Try showing up at a bar in Toronto's financial district and letting it slip that you're a geologist. You'll instantly be surrounded by money managers buying you drinks and asking for inside information on exploration companies.
 10/23/2012 04:16:28 PM · #12
Originally posted by yanko:
Originally posted by Art Roflmao:
Science knows everything - I hear it on DPC all the time - they should rot in jail.


Religion knows everything. I hear that everywhere, not just DPC. Maybe those scientists can ask the clergy for recommendations on the best cell blocks?


Wrong, government knows everything and government has the power to put them away.
 10/23/2012 04:31:36 PM · #13
Originally posted by Strikeslip:
Geologists are held to a higher standard... it's understandable. They are always the movie heroes.

Try showing up at a bar in Toronto's financial district and letting it slip that you're a geologist. You'll instantly be surrounded by money managers buying you drinks and asking for inside information on exploration companies.


:) DPC may have a slightly different standard they hold their geologists to... ;) ROFL.
 10/23/2012 04:37:55 PM · #14
Originally posted by BrennanOB:
Since the tradition of killing the messenger who carries bad news goes back to Roman days, it only makes sense that an Italian court would come to this conclusion. I wonder how long it will be before we can sue people for not finding a cure for cancer, or for not making me that jet pack I have always thought I would have by now.


I made you that darn jet pack, but then you gained all that weight. OK, sue me, I was supposed to know this would happen.
 10/23/2012 04:57:36 PM · #15
That earthquahe hit my region. I woke up that night frightened and my wife (she was not yet my wife at that time) lived very close to L'Aquila. People I knew died. My wife was ok but now she can't sleep the same way she used to do before that day.

Scientists are one the most important things for people around the world, maybe the most important.

But that article didn't say a lot of things: people were scared in L'Aquila, the eartquake series was VERY long and some them of them complained several times against Italian government because some houses were not safe. L'Aquila has been destroyed 3 times after long earthquake series. Each time people asked the scientists of how dangerous was the situation they answered: 'it's very unlikely that a major earthquake could hit L'Aquila'.

I agree they shouldn't condemn scientists, but this time a lot of people should feel guilty for what happened, at the least for being too superficial.

It's easy to make fun of an entire country, but our worst sin was still electing 3 times Berlusconi...
 10/23/2012 05:17:42 PM · #16
Originally posted by Alexkc:
That earthquahe hit my region. I woke up that night frightened and my wife (she was not yet my wife at that time) lived very close to L'Aquila. People I knew died. My wife was ok but now she can't sleep the same way she used to do before that day.

Scientists are one the most important things for people around the world, maybe the most important.

But that article didn't say a lot of things: people were scared in L'Aquila, the eartquake series was VERY long and some them of them complained several times against Italian government because some houses were not safe. L'Aquila has been destroyed 3 times after long earthquake series. Each time people asked the scientists of how dangerous was the situation they answered: 'it's very unlikely that a major earthquake could hit L'Aquila'.

I agree they shouldn't condemn scientists, but this time a lot of people should feel guilty for what happened, at the least for being too superficial.

It's easy to make fun of an entire country, but our worst sin was still electing 3 times Berlusconi...


I don't know if the scientists should feel guilty. I assume that they're doing their best. Though l'Aquila has been hit, it looks like it's more in the 1600 and 1700s.

It sounds like the goverment should feel quilts, though, if they knew houses weren't safe. That's probably why they're blaming the scientists.



Message edited by author 2012-10-23 17:19:19.
 10/23/2012 05:31:52 PM · #17
The city has a history of being destroyed by earthquakes and people didn't expect another one? That defies common sense. You also can't establish modern day cities that crumble down everytime there's an earthquake or expect people to leave their homes. Better planning laws and re-enforcement of the older buildings was what the government should have done instead of using hapless scientists as a crutch to re-enforce their inaction.
10/23/2012 05:37:44 PM · #18
Originally posted by vawendy:
It sounds like the goverment should feel guilt, though, if they knew houses weren't safe. That's probably why they're blaming the scientists.


As a builder in California I can tell you that no house is safe in a strong seismic event. You can build them safer, you cant make them safe. If Italy and Virginia are willing to make the effort to build to the standards of California or Japan you would be safer, but it means getting rid of all those un-reinforced masonry buildings and virtually any building that is older than 50 years old.

Ask the average homeowner of a glorious 300 year old villa in the rolling hills if they would like to tear down their house and repalace it with a well engineered structure with a peir and gradebeam foundation, foundation to roofbeam throughbolts, and shearwalls, that will look modern and dull. Those improvements will let you ride out anything up to an 8.5. Interested? Few would be.
 10/23/2012 05:47:13 PM · #19
*scratching head* waitaminute...if I'm right in following the rationale here, then the guys who designed the levees in Louisiana should be sued up the wazoo because they (the levees) failed to hold back the havoc wreaked by Katrina.

Let's face it, we've f**ked this planet up no end, and we STILL expect to come out on top every time in a conflict with nature. Nature is waayyyy bigger than all of us and every so often flexes her muscles to remind us of that.

I'm not trying to belittle the loss of human life. But how much can we do to safeguard ourselves against a power that is global in scope? Not a whole helluva lot. There are only so many ways to brace buildings, there is only so high we can build levees, and otherwise prepare for destruction by nature.

Fer example. I got my home insurance renewal policy in the mail the other day and I am no longer covered for measly ol' floods...I am now also covered for tsunami damage. Yeah, tsunami. No matter that the St Lawrence Seaway is a good 30+ km away and I'm pretty high up, and the chances of my little ol schoolhouse being washed away by a tsunami are probably 1 in a trillion. But obviously the insurance company is covering its butt bigtime, because Mama Nature is imho running out of patience with us. Real fast.
 10/23/2012 05:48:42 PM · #20
Originally posted by Alexkc:
That earthquahe hit my region. I woke up that night frightened and my wife (she was not yet my wife at that time) lived very close to L'Aquila. People I knew died. My wife was ok but now she can't sleep the same way she used to do before that day.

Scientists are one the most important things for people around the world, maybe the most important.

But that article didn't say a lot of things: people were scared in L'Aquila, the eartquake series was VERY long and some them of them complained several times against Italian government because some houses were not safe. L'Aquila has been destroyed 3 times after long earthquake series. Each time people asked the scientists of how dangerous was the situation they answered: 'it's very unlikely that a major earthquake could hit L'Aquila'.

I agree they shouldn't condemn scientists, but this time a lot of people should feel guilty for what happened, at the least for being too superficial.

It's easy to make fun of an entire country, but our worst sin was still electing 3 times Berlusconi...


Unlikely doesn't mean impossible. If people were so scared, then why did they stay? Just because a scientist says something is unlikely doesn't mean you are safe.

I do not mean to ridicule your country, as the Italy is the source of some of the very best culture man has to offer. But between this, captain Schnetto and Berlusconi I genuinely feel sorry for all the good people of Italy, as this must be horribly embarrasing.

Please understand that, as a scientist, I do feel it is my duty to ridicule this decision, and all who support it, whatever their reasons.

The general public may not understand science well enough to grasp that these predictions are highly complex and the models are only models -sometimes they are very wrong, despite being done perfectly. Science is still in its infancy in some ways, and we have much to learn still, plus we just simply need more data, these models are built on a few centuries of good data and a few thousand years of less accurate and less complete data. That means that errors are completely expected, and if the general public isn't educated to a level where they are able to understand this, that is clearly their personal failing. Under no circumstance should the educated man be persecuted for the failure of the uneducated to understand him.
 10/23/2012 05:53:58 PM · #21
Originally posted by snaffles:

Let's face it, we've f**ked this planet up no end, and we STILL expect to come out on top every time in a conflict with nature. Nature is waayyyy bigger than all of us and every so often flexes her muscles to remind us of that.


+1
 10/23/2012 06:13:46 PM · #22
Originally posted by vawendy:
Originally posted by Alexkc:
That earthquahe hit my region. I woke up that night frightened and my wife (she was not yet my wife at that time) lived very close to L'Aquila. People I knew died. My wife was ok but now she can't sleep the same way she used to do before that day.

Scientists are one the most important things for people around the world, maybe the most important.

But that article didn't say a lot of things: people were scared in L'Aquila, the eartquake series was VERY long and some them of them complained several times against Italian government because some houses were not safe. L'Aquila has been destroyed 3 times after long earthquake series. Each time people asked the scientists of how dangerous was the situation they answered: 'it's very unlikely that a major earthquake could hit L'Aquila'.

I agree they shouldn't condemn scientists, but this time a lot of people should feel guilty for what happened, at the least for being too superficial.

It's easy to make fun of an entire country, but our worst sin was still electing 3 times Berlusconi...


I don't know if the scientists should feel guilty. I assume that they're doing their best. Though l'Aquila has been hit, it looks like it's more in the 1600 and 1700s.

It sounds like the goverment should feel quilts, though, if they knew houses weren't safe. That's probably why they're blaming the scientists.


Glad that you weighed in to give us another piece of the puzzle Alexkc but even with that information I like Wendy think that it is far easier to attack the scientists. I feel that they are taking the full brunt of the blame for 1) government not taking steps to make new housing earthquake safe 2)enforcing and retrofitting older buildings to stand up to earthquakes in a region that is KNOWN for getting earthquakes.

I also question why indeed that renters/homeowners did not take some responsibility themselves for disaster preparedness and mayhap take on the burden of reinforcing the home structure themselves since they *know* the region is prone to earthquakes. It might be that their might have building code red tape or it might have been a financial burden but I am just guessing. I lived in L.A. and went through a handful of earthquakes myself (it is quite terrifying so I sympathize with your wife) so I know the value of earthquake preparedness and being aware of your surroundings. Understand I am not attacking the people who lost their lives I just don't fully understand all the facts as to why they themselves took few precautions - it could be that they did but they could only do so much before running into red tape and financial burdens.

Message edited by author 2012-10-23 18:22:00.
 10/23/2012 06:14:41 PM · #23
Originally posted by snaffles:
*scratching head* waitaminute...if I'm right in following the rationale here, then the guys who designed the levees in Louisiana should be sued up the wazoo because they (the levees) failed to hold back the havoc wreaked by Katrina.


Yes, they were guilty of many errors, most in an effort to be the lowest bidder despite knowing that the assumptions they used to generate that low bid weakened the levees below specs. Sand was used instead of clay, soil samples were cherry picked to design for the best samples instead of the worst samples, and pumps were poorly placed and not maintained. Those pumps were replaced in 2006 by pumps sold by a politically connected manufacturer. The replacement pumps have never worked to spec.

Nature is not kind to us, we have to build assuming she will try to knock down what we build and kill us. When there is a catastrophe, we can see who built the best they could, and who was the politically connected lowball bidder who was only interested in their profit margin. Those people should be punished when their greed kills people.
 10/23/2012 06:38:58 PM · #24
Wow, fascinating to get the inside scoop on the levees...but there you go...people try to save $$ and then look what happens when along comes something big and strong enough to destroy it. That's a big reason why I bought an old schoolhouse, now 133 years old. It's double-brick, was built in 1879, and there is no way the good people of the area would have let a weak, shoddy structure be built in which the kids - THEIR kids, the ones destined to work their farms - grades 1-8 were being educated. This house is as solid as it gets.

A brief aside...there was supposed to be a new bridge over the Ottawa River to ease the load on existing bridges and roadways. Well, they had to halt construction because the builder (don't know if they were a lowballer and/or *connected* but they probably were) mysteriously went bankrupt. And oh yeah, the mix used to make the concrete ensured that structually it was very weak, it wouldn't have lasted long before it did collapse. So they had to tear down what they had built of the span and get a new contractor in.
 10/23/2012 06:46:48 PM · #25
Originally posted by Cory:
... if the general public isn't educated to a level where they are able to understand this, that is clearly their personal failing. Under no circumstance should the educated man be persecuted for the failure of the uneducated to understand him.


We are all uneducated in some area or other, that doesn't imply that their voice is irrelevant even in the area that in which they are uneducated about.
Labeling someone as educated or uneducated has just a relative meaning and tends to be more detrimental than beneficial. Many times I learn more form a question coming from someone that doesn't know anything about a subject that from someone that is an expert.

In physics we like to think that if we can't explain something to the normal guy on the street then we don't really understand what we are talking about.

Initially, I don't think that there was any failure on any of the part involved. The idea of been able to predict an earthquake is ridiculous. As well it is to blame the people that after been living with this shakes for a long time would give them less importance. I never lived in an area with seismic activity so the small shake would drive me to be extra careful, nevertheless people who live in very active regions would look at the shaking walls without much of a worry.

This is just a tragedy as many other that happen from time to time, blaming the scientist might release a bit of the public pressure for a while but in won't change anything. I will expect that the scientist would win the appeal. The whole sentence seem odd since i believe the prosecution was asking for 4 years and the judge gave 6 so doesn't sound like a very impartial judge.

Anyways, I think that is quite a big issue that more and more science is been given a role of absolute certainty and a couple phrases at the end of a speculative paper are taking as an absolute prove by the media and governments and new regulations start to be demanded and pushed forward on very unstable basis.

I am pretty sure that I had quite a few errors in my English up there, sorry about that. Hope that still can be understood in spite of it.

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