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01/01/2009 03:25:53 PM · #1 |
Interesting predictions indeed.
1. PS3 pricing is reduced by $100
I don't think there's any doubt that PlayStation 3 pricing will be reduced by $100 in the next year. As the costs of building the console continue to fall and Sony's competitors continue to enjoy strong sales thanks to a lower price, the pressure Sony will feel will be too much and it'll be forced to bring the price of its PS3 down to $299 to compete more effectively against the Xbox 360 and the Wii.
Will it work? You bet.
2. Apple ends iPhone exclusivity deal with AT&T
This one isn't too much of a stretch and I'm sure many of you would agree that it's only a matter of time before Apple finally announces that the iPhone will be made available to more carriers.
AT&T exclusivity simply doesn't work for Apple anymore, since it's now one of the leaders in the cell phone space and it's doing itself a disservice by not opening its popular mobile phone up to the millions of people who have decided against AT&T as their mobile carrier.
Exclusivity was great for two years, but now that Apple has proven it has its sights set on RIM, it can't beat the BlackBerry maker unless it makes its iPhone available to any U.S. carrier.
3. Blu-ray gains little ground on DVDs as streaming takes off
Sorry, but Blu-ray won't gain very much ground in 2009. So far, its adoption rates are still quite low--around 10 percent to 15 percent each week based on Nielsen VideoScan figures--and both the players and the movies will still cost too much for people to move to Blu-ray in any meaningful way.
Meantime, 2008's breakout success--Hulu-- will help lead the charge in online streaming and act as the benchmark all other professional media outlets will try to surpass. While that's happening, more capable set-top boxes will hit store shelves and more people will find reasons to stream movies into their living rooms instead of popping a disc into their Blu-ray or DVD players.
4. Windows 7 hits store shelves
Vista has been a PR nightmare for Microsoft, vendors are still upset with the product, and businesses are loath to deploy the OS for fear of incompatibility, security, and stability issues.
Realizing that, Microsoft will ramp up the rhetoric in 2009 and start talking more and more about Windows 7. And at what it believes is the perfect time--March or April, if you ask me--it will announce that Windows 7 will be launching in 2009.
I'm still betting its launch date will be November 2.
5. Steve Jobs announces his retirement date
I know Apple zealots and shareholders won't like to see this one happen, but Steve Jobs will announce his retirement date in 2009. I don't think he'll retire in 2009--that would be a disastrous move from a share price perspective as shareholders are looking for a strong leader in uncertain times--but he will announce that he's had enough and will call it quits by the end of 2010. At the same time, he'll announce his successor and throughout 2009, he'll let that person take more of the limelight to quell some shareholder unrest over his departure.
So there you have it: my predictions for 2009. Will they come true? Who knows? But one thing is certain: 2009 will be an exciting year for tech and I hope you keep coming back to The Digital Home in the next year to continue our discussions about some of the most important topics in this industry.
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01/01/2009 05:22:30 PM · #2 |
did i miss the launch of windows 1-6 ?
are they calling it windows 7 to try to make us think they've jumped ahead seven version in quality and perfomance ?
man ! and i thought i had a cutting edge OS with Vista...
how come he didn't predict the next animal that will ruIn the Macs ?
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01/01/2009 05:29:08 PM · #3 |
Originally posted by soup:
did i miss the launch of windows 1-6 ?
... |
Vista is windows 6
XP 5.1
2000 5.0
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01/01/2009 05:31:06 PM · #4 |
I think all but #3 are pretty accurate.
Blu-Ray certainly isn't going to explode by any means, but people aren't going to give up their desire for owning physical media over digital distribution by any stretch either. Not this year, not for another 10 years (or more). There are simply too many issues for digital distribution to become that mainstream.
Physical media will show that it has a lot of legs, IMO. It's simply easier to transport around, to have in areas where bandwidth isn't available, and collectors (and regular people) still want something tangible.
Not to mention the fact that while Hulu was very popular, it is grossly limited. Broadband is still decades away from being widespread enough, feeds are limited to U.S. only, and quality still has a very long way to go.
There needs to be some major changes and advances in technology and ease of use before digital distribution goes anywhere outside of a niche, no matter how popular that niche may be right now. |
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01/01/2009 05:31:36 PM · #5 |
yeah yeah yeah
3.0
95
98
ME/2000
XP
Vista....
i was kidding.
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01/01/2009 05:34:13 PM · #6 |
Originally posted by Nikolai1024:
Originally posted by soup:
did i miss the launch of windows 1-6 ?
... |
Vista is windows 6
XP 5.1
2000 5.0 |
Hrrm. Windows 98 would have been 5, by my calculations. So 2000 and XP should be 6.0 and 6.1. Is Vista 6.2? heh |
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01/01/2009 06:48:09 PM · #7 |
Originally posted by soup:
did i miss the launch of windows 1-6 ?
are they calling it windows 7 to try to make us think they've jumped ahead seven version in quality and perfomance ?
man ! and i thought i had a cutting edge OS with Vista...
how come he didn't predict the next animal that will ruIn the Macs ? |
I think it's a PR decision to name it Windows 7 and here is why.
1. We all know Vista is a failure. Plus the name did nothing to simplify matters. It's amazing how the product name can influence sales even if it's a good product. We have a bad product with a bad name.
2. Naming the product after a year such as Windows 95 & 98 was a naming failure but we didn't hear as much about it because the products were ok, better with 98. But the year was giving the customer a feeling of running outdated software when it was taking years to develop a better or new version. Ok Product with a naming problem.
3. The only windows software that didn't have a naming problem was windows 3.0 and 3.1. Outdated but no naming issues.
4. In Microsoft's best interest they needed to go back to what naming worked to hopefully regain customer confidence. They couldn't go down to 4.0 as it would seem to be a downgrade by consumers even though possibly better product than Vista or XP. Microsoft needed a customer friendly name that would not confuse customers, so what number would be better than Lucky 7, a number that makes most people feel good. A simple-customer friendly name with hopes of being superior to Vista and even XP/2000.
That,s my 2 cents of 4 reasons why.
Message edited by author 2009-01-01 18:57:47. |
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01/01/2009 06:58:30 PM · #8 |
and why IYO is Vista such a bad product ? to be honest i've heard more griping about the Mac OSX leopard than Vista...
so apple likes to rename the same OS with some sort of animal ammendment. where MS provides normal updates as needed for free calling them Service Packs...
i'm curious if you're running vista cuz it seems to me you know all about how bad it is...
and again - my original post was in jest.
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01/01/2009 07:00:12 PM · #9 |
oh and happy new year MCH ;)
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01/01/2009 07:05:35 PM · #10 |
Originally posted by soup:
and why IYO is Vista such a bad product ? to be honest i've heard more griping about the Mac OSX leopard than Vista...
so apple likes to rename the same OS with some sort of animal ammendment. where MS provides normal updates as needed for free calling them Service Packs...
i'm curious if you're running vista cuz it seems to me you know all about how bad it is...
and again - my original post was in jest. |
After running vista on this computer, now back to XP-SP2 (not 3) with another computer in the house still running Vista and both computers have healthy components, the XP version of windows run my software faster and more efficient than Vista did. I know a lot of bugs have been sorted out with Vista since it's conception but it still, in the eyes of most consumers, is a failure; to little to late. Even some people with Microsoft feel it is.
But personally I can go from one room to another and see the difference. I know what Vista run like on my computer vs. XP so for me, Vista is not an option. |
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01/01/2009 07:12:56 PM · #11 |
fair enough - but your assumptions are just that.
most 'consumers' didn't run out and buy a disc of vista - they bought a computer with it pre-installed.
from a corporate perspective - it's always a PITA to upgrade anything - and therefore it's only done on a NEED be basis. so in that sense i see your point.
if you're trying to run XP on a P2 machine you'd be saying the same thing about XP vs '98. so healthy hardware is good, but hardware designed to run the software is KEY.//
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01/01/2009 08:36:29 PM · #12 |
I love my Vista OS. Of course I am running a 64 bit system with 6GB of ram, so the fact that it is a bit ram hungry does not bother me very much. It is very stable, I have never had problems with compatability (not that a quick update of drivers could not fix) and it is easier to navigate then XP.
The fact that PS CS4 and the latest LR actually use the 64 bit advantage makes them rock along like crazy.
To each his or her own I suppose. I am much happier buying good quality inexpensive pc's then over-hyped, over-priced Mac products. |
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