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10/31/2007 02:56:16 AM · #1 |
Here is a thought from Thom Hogan,
I think we're nearing a critical point with digital cameras, and especially DSLRs. It's difficult to imagine a small sensor compact camera better than the Ricoh GX-100 or the Leica D-Lux 3 (though it's not difficult to imagine a better compact with a bigger sensor). It's also difficult to imagine FX sensor DSLRs better than the Canon 1DsIII and Nikon D3. In the DX/APS DSLRs, we've got the Sony A700, Nikon D300, and Canon 40D, with very competitive consumer models living under those (and those products are all due for a refresh shortly, which should bring them even closer in competence to their higher-end sibblings). New DSLR products are thus starting to have marginal increases in ability (though I don't dismiss those--every push forward in ISO or focus ability, etc., is useful to someone).
My assessment is that in 2008 we won't be seeing many curves thrown at the DSLR market. Instead, in the near future we'll see more feature consolidation, some modest bump in megapixels, and perhaps marginal image quality increases. Indeed, to some degree we already see those things. Some might argue that the D300 is simply bringing the D200 up to the current state-of-the-art levels of features, megapixels, and image quality. Look at how many things didn't change on the D300, D3, 40D, 1DIII, and 1DIIIs from the previous models, and how many things that did change are simply trying to match new features introduced elsewhere (lithium batteries, dust reduction systems, higher-end AF, live view, etc.). Nikon and Canon really only missed sensor stabilization in the feature consolidation on the latest round of DSLRs. Both pressed image quality aspects about as high as you could expect given the physical limits being pressed against with Bayer systems.
So what is the next market disruption going to be for DSLRs? Most likely the move beyond Bayer. This allows for dropping the anti-aliasing filter, amongst other things. Done right, a post-Bayer DSLR could up the image quality ante a substantial amount if noise can be held under control and dynamic range not compromised. But I don't think we'll see that disruption next year, or perhaps not even in 2009. Post-Bayer (other than Sigma's Foveon-based cameras) feels more like a 2010 introduction to me.
So we're likely going from an "I'll upgrade my DSLR every cycle" to "I'll upgrade my DSLR every other cycle" kind of market. You won't be getting big bangs for the upgrade buck if you iterate every cycle. Indeed, my initial assessment of the D300 is that the primary move forward for it is the AF system. If you're satisfied with the AF system of your D200, then I'm not sure that the D300 represents the huge leap everyone suggests. Sure, it looks like high ISO has improved by perhaps a stop and you get another 2 megapixels, but those are small improvements that not everyone values the same.
The compact market still has two potential curves left in the near term, the biggest of which will be the introduction of larger sensor models. The other would be a move towards dedicated AF systems. All else equal, just adding those two things to any existing compact camera would make it stand out from the competition, at least for the serious users.
Thom Hogan
What do you think about the statement? |
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10/31/2007 08:45:57 AM · #2 |
I have to leave it smarter people than I to debate that statement.
I think I am like many who want technology to bring us the next "oooo, ahhhh, I want that item" product.
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10/31/2007 09:14:37 AM · #3 |
Larger sensors in the compacts would be a welcome improvement. They keep cramming more and more megapixels on the small sensors without improving image quality.
A P&S with a sensor size of a 40D is what I'm looking for. |
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10/31/2007 09:35:28 AM · #4 |
Originally posted by msieglerfr:
What do you think about the statement? |
I think I wish I understood what you were speaking about.
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10/31/2007 10:11:19 AM · #5 |
The only improvements that seem to be taking place in the camera market is better hish ISO performance, newer focussing systems and a bump in megapixels. I remember reading something on Luminous Landscapes that said that technology will reach such a point in cameras to be a plateau and it seems we're rapidly approachint that. Canon's next top of the line will be something like a 30mp, 100 focus point, 10 frames a second, ISO 6400 no noise jobby.
The next step is just applying the current developments across the board- as seen with canons cleaning system, but basically I'm just repeating the original post- i cannot imagine any more massive breakthroughs in digital cameras unless someone revolutionises the design, or they reduce the cost of full frame cameras to the point where they are the norm for amateurs on a budget, as well as the celestial pros. |
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10/31/2007 10:21:54 AM · #6 |
(better) integration of video capture
(better) integration of audio capture
On camera editing
improved wireless integration
integrated location capture/ instant upload
increased & controllable dynamic range
configurable exposure settings
after capture depth of field selection
improved image recognition/ facial recognition
speech control (or back to eye control that works) or other radical interface changes - sony's 'smile shutter' would be a currently bad indicator of where that could go.
A lot of ways things could change and evolve to create plenty of market segments
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10/31/2007 10:23:11 AM · #7 |
Originally posted by msieglerfr:
What do you think about the statement? |
I think when people start claiming that technology is approaching some barrier to continued significant improvement, you should start planning on the imminent arrival of significant improvement in that technology.
Fortunately innovation is not dependent on the foresight of journalists. |
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10/31/2007 10:24:26 AM · #8 |
| Even if the technology levels off at current specs, pricing should come down on the higher end models and components. Lower priced components should improve the offerings in the lower price point cameras. |
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10/31/2007 10:33:04 AM · #9 |
Originally posted by routerguy666:
Originally posted by msieglerfr:
What do you think about the statement? |
I think when people start claiming that technology is approaching some barrier to continued significant improvement, you should start planning on the imminent arrival of significant improvement in that technology.
Fortunately innovation is not dependent on the foresight of journalists. |
Everything that can be invented has been invented. Charles H. Duell, Office of Patents, 1899
Who wants to hear actors talk? H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility. Lee DeForest, inventor
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10/31/2007 11:06:34 AM · #10 |
Originally posted by Gordon:
Everything that can be invented has been invented. Charles H. Duell, Office of Patents, 1899
Who wants to hear actors talk? H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility. Lee DeForest, inventor |
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, IBM.
I agree that there's always going to be something new and improved coming out. I mean, not too long ago people were stunned at the idea of ever filling their 1GB hard drives.
Message edited by author 2007-10-31 11:07:41.
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10/31/2007 02:21:51 PM · #11 |
With the advances in live view mode, I don't think it'll be long before we see an EVIL camera (electronic viewfinder, interchangeable lenses). I would put my money on Oly or Pentax due to their commitments to "small."
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10/31/2007 06:05:57 PM · #12 |
but electronic viewfinders suck, that sounds more retrogressive to me since i'm yet to see a decent electronic viewfinder.
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10/31/2007 07:01:46 PM · #13 |
| Next big DSLR move? WiFi with geo-tagging. Not just a $1K option, but fully integrated both in the camera and the workflow software. Next step after that: not just automatic location tags, but auto person-tags, scene-tags, etc. |
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10/31/2007 07:46:38 PM · #14 |
A little off topic, but I wonder what will happen to all the non-
dslr's? The upgrading/turnover rate must be increasing. Actually I wonder what IS happening to them, or is there always someone lesser than oneself in needs/expectations on whom to foist them, or are we running out of 8 year olds?
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10/31/2007 08:03:07 PM · #15 |
i think lenses are where the future will happen.. lenses have seen improvements by the decades.. and they are still being made the same way..only better..
i think in the near future there would be a new way to bend light other than glass.. where a 1000mm would be only 10 cms long with no chromatic abertions or distortions and sharper than ever.
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10/31/2007 08:28:28 PM · #16 |
I look for lens improvement too, maybe not glass as we know it. Shutters with no moving parts to break or wear out would be nice too, as that would help with camera shake. I think that could be done by sampling the current data stream from the sensor. Weather sealing, like Canon high end cameras on consumer models would be nice too.
Message edited by author 2007-10-31 20:28:51.
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10/31/2007 09:44:46 PM · #17 |
| Match improving consumer priced output devices (monitors, printers) with true 16 bpc. |
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11/01/2007 12:16:35 AM · #18 |
Originally posted by Tez:
but electronic viewfinders suck, that sounds more retrogressive to me since i'm yet to see a decent electronic viewfinder. |
By electronic VF I mean live view on the rear LCD, with no optical VF whatsoever. And the point of it being "the next step" is the fact that tech advancements will make it possible and an improvment. |
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11/01/2007 12:28:10 AM · #19 |
ive heard rumors of a digital rangefinder from nikon someday... oooohh =)
in all reality, I think the big advancements we'll see are getting audio and video and still from the same machine.
a lot of people are taking still images from frame grabs, and that equals about the quality of the first decent Dslr ... the nikon D1.
it took awhile after the d1 to get digi still images up to par, im guessing it will take less time for video frame grabs.
this is what the future is unless you are shooting extremely (read commercial work) images.
And I hope camera advancements slow down. I for one hope to beat my D3 into the ground once I get it. I want years out of that thing...and I just used one this weekend. Sooooooo nice =). Can't ask for much better. High ISO is like night vision. |
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11/01/2007 01:14:59 AM · #20 |
My thinking is that in future the mirror part of SLRS is going to go. There will be more Sony-R1 type cameras but with changable lense. The mirror produces lot of vibrations and because of it the lense placement could not be made better. Once the mirror is done away with the lense could be placed much closed to sensor giving ways to many things, most important of those is live preview of photo.
Though i do not see that in immediate future SLRs are going somewhere, but they will disapprear somepoint of time in future. When it happens we have to see.
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12/05/2007 10:29:32 AM · #21 |
Originally posted by msieglerfr:
What do you think about the statement? |
I find it sort of comforting. If true, it would mean my new camera won't be outdated soon. |
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12/05/2007 10:34:30 AM · #22 |
Originally posted by scarbrd:
Larger sensors in the compacts would be a welcome improvement. They keep cramming more and more megapixels on the small sensors without improving image quality.
A P&S with a sensor size of a 40D is what I'm looking for. |
I'd be interested in buying one! Something like my S5 with a larger sensor and Raw would be ideal.
Message edited by author 2007-12-05 10:35:54. |
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12/05/2007 11:23:04 AM · #23 |
Originally posted by zxaar:
My thinking is that in future the mirror part of SLRS is going to go. The mirror produces lot of vibrations and because of it the lense placement could not be made better. Once the mirror is done away with the lense could be placed much closed to sensor giving ways to many things, most important of those is live preview of photo. |
i'll miss that satisfying mirror slap... :( |
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12/05/2007 11:28:02 AM · #24 |
Originally posted by Gordon:
(better) integration of video capture
(better) integration of audio capture
On camera editing
improved wireless integration
integrated location capture/ instant upload
increased & controllable dynamic range
configurable exposure settings
after capture depth of field selection
improved image recognition/ facial recognition
speech control (or back to eye control that works) or other radical interface changes - sony's 'smile shutter' would be a currently bad indicator of where that could go.
A lot of ways things could change and evolve to create plenty of market segments |
I read in Popular Science magazine a while back, about selecting DOF during RAW post processing.
A prototype invention had something like 32 Sensors to accomplish that. That probably won't be out in 2008, yet.
You wouldn't believe things that some people develop. At one time 10 Megabytes was all the memory computers had. Computers have recently gotton Multiple Processors (CPUs).
In my teenage years I dreamed of a 10-200mm small-enough, fast lens. That'l be here soon.
Have you heard of this "Video Camera", (24.4×13.7mm sensor) Red One , a $17,000 (body only, mudular), Digital video camera, does 12 Megapixels, at Not-29, up to 60 frames per second (fps)
Message edited by author 2007-12-05 11:36:45. |
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12/05/2007 01:07:00 PM · #25 |
| Technology should be working towards improving the performance of the smaller sensors (1/2.7", 1/1.8", 2/3"), to match the performance and capabilities of the full frame sensor. Putting them in DSLRs would mean smaller bodies and lenses (especially telephoto), reduced weight and bulk of camera systems, easier shooting and carrying, reduced cost to both manufacture and purchase. Technology seems to always be directed towards miniaturization. |
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