Election Prediction - Not win or lose but...

Canon EF 24-70mm f/2.8L USM

11/03/2008 09:10:08 PM · #1

I have been watching the polls for about 6 weeks. Not just the "main" numbers posted but all the internals they release. Here is my take...

If you look at the latest polls done on Sunday in battleground states, you will see that they are all basically still toss ups.

If you look at the SOLID Obama states (ones that he will carry with no problem) you will see very high percentages...10, 15, 22, 12, 17 or higher...percent of the vote in his states.

When you look at McCain's sure to win states, you see 6%, 9%, 8% etc...

I see it this way: If McCain captures all of the toss up states (which he has to do unless he wins Penn and another blue state) he will win the electorial college but dare I say it....LOSE THE POPULAR VOTE by as much as 200,000 votes !

I feel there is no other way. If McCain squeaks by and wins this, he will surely lose the popular vote. The only way around this would be if the polls are totally wrong.

What do you say?

goinskiing

Canon EOS-6D

11/03/2008 09:14:59 PM · #2

Could be an interesting day.

citymars

Canon EF 24-105mm f/4.0L IS

11/03/2008 09:16:19 PM · #3

I'd say it would give the Republicans a taste of what the Democrats felt last election, when Kerry won the popular vote but not the electoral vote.

DrAchoo

Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX5

11/03/2008 09:28:43 PM · #4

If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

11/03/2008 09:30:06 PM · #5

I didn't say that McCain would win the popular vote...I said IF McCain would squeak out a win, IMO he would LOSE the popular vote. Obama would win the popular vote but LOSE the election.

Also...it wasn't Kerry...it was 8 years ago when Gore won the popular vote but lost the election.

Originally posted by citymars:

I'd say it would give the Republicans a taste of what the Democrats felt last election, when Kerry won the popular vote but not the electoral vote.

11/03/2008 09:30:15 PM · #6

How many dimpled or hanging chads?

Canon EF 24-105mm f/4.0L IS

11/03/2008 09:31:20 PM · #7

This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

DrAchoo

Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX5

11/03/2008 09:44:01 PM · #8

Originally posted by kenskid:

This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

BeeCee

Nikon D40

Nikon AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 ED

11/03/2008 09:48:23 PM · #9

I say I'm glad it's almost over.

citymars

11/03/2008 09:48:55 PM · #10

Originally posted by kenskid:

I didn't say that McCain would win the popular vote...I said IF McCain would squeak out a win, IMO he would LOSE the popular vote. Obama would win the popular vote but LOSE the election.
Also...it wasn't Kerry...it was 8 years ago when Gore won the popular vote but lost the election.

Wow, I was wrong on two counts! LOL Time to give it up for the night. :-)

11/03/2008 09:50:32 PM · #11

I was wondering if you misplaced your eyeglasses !

Originally posted by citymars:

Originally posted by kenskid:
I didn't say that McCain would win the popular vote...I said IF McCain would squeak out a win, IMO he would LOSE the popular vote. Obama would win the popular vote but LOSE the election.
Also...it wasn't Kerry...it was 8 years ago when Gore won the popular vote but lost the election.

Wow, I was wrong on two counts! LOL Time to give it up for the night. :-)

citymars

11/03/2008 09:53:34 PM · #12

Originally posted by kenskid:

I was wondering if you misplaced your eyeglasses !

No, just an early preview of more senior moments to come, I'm afraid!

Nikon AF Nikkor 50mm f/1.8D

11/03/2008 09:55:38 PM · #13

Keep repeating that and I'll meet you back here at midnight tomorrow.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by kenskid:
This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

Prash

Nikon D90

11/03/2008 09:57:35 PM · #14

Originally posted by kenskid:

Keep repeating that and I'll meet you back here at midnight tomorrow.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by kenskid:
This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

Your subject line says "..Not win or lose but...", but you seem to be very sensitive when it comes to any whiffs of McCain losing:-)

11/03/2008 09:58:27 PM · #15

Originally posted by kenskid:

I doubt it will be over at midnight unless most of the battleground states go Obama.

11/03/2008 09:59:35 PM · #16

Keep looking..you'll see that I'm just responding to others...and some were totally inacurate and I had to correct !

Originally posted by Prash:

Originally posted by kenskid:
Keep repeating that and I'll meet you back here at midnight tomorrow.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by kenskid:
This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

Your subject line says "..Not win or lose but...", but you seem to be very sensitive when it comes to any whiffs of McCain losing:-)

11/03/2008 10:01:00 PM · #17

Nah...I think by midnight central it will be all over...unless it is a totally crazy, vote stealing or disinfranchised voter kind of night involving lawyers!

Originally posted by cpanaioti:

Originally posted by kenskid:
Keep repeating that and I'll meet you back here at midnight tomorrow.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by kenskid:
This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

I doubt it will be over at midnight unless most of the battleground states go Obama.

Canon EF 24-105mm f/4.0L IS

11/03/2008 10:02:10 PM · #18

Originally posted by kenskid:

Nah...I think by midnight central it will be all over...unless it is a totally crazy, vote stealing or disinfranchised voter kind of night involving lawyers!

Originally posted by cpanaioti:

Originally posted by kenskid:
Keep repeating that and I'll meet you back here at midnight tomorrow.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by kenskid:
This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

I doubt it will be over at midnight unless most of the battleground states go Obama.

As long as Florida isn't using those punch type voter cards again....

DrAchoo

Panasonic Lumix DMC-LX5

11/03/2008 10:47:41 PM · #19

Originally posted by cpanaioti:

Originally posted by kenskid:
Keep repeating that and I'll meet you back here at midnight tomorrow.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by kenskid:
This is not the issue delt with in the post....

If McCain does run the table...it will be narrow victories. This imo means Obama wins the popular vote.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If McCain has to run the entire gamut of toss-up states, then he's got a really long night ahead of him...

OK, I can agree. The polls seem to indicate if McCain wins, he will likely lose the popular vote. However, the much more likely scenario is he simply doesn't win.

I doubt it will be over at midnight unless most of the battleground states go Obama.

Really Obama has to win only one or two, not "most". It could, in essence, be over very early. If Virgina goes Obama, he will win. If Virginia AND North Carolia go Obama, he will win in a landslide.

I'm on the West Coast, but I'm pretty sure it will be called by 9:00PM my time unless polls are kept open lots of extra hours because of the increased # going to the polls.

FireBird

11/03/2008 11:45:05 PM · #20

Rap! Tap! Tap! Tap!!!!

Hey Karmat!!!!!!

You awake???

Lock this sucker and roll it into the rant political thread!