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08/15/2008 04:36:10 PM · #26 |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Here are the statistics I could come up with:
US Population under 18: 74 million
Annual abductions of children by non-family members: about 4,000
That gives us odds of about 1 in 18,500. |
Those are pretty good odds that one has little to worry about, all things considered, to lighten the mood a little here are some other odds for comparison,
Odds of bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1
Odds of getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1
Odds of getting canonized: 20,000,000 to 1
Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1
Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1
Odds of an American speaking Cherokee: 15000 to 1
Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does NOT read a newspaper regularly: 3 to 1
Odds that an American adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 3 to 2
Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1
Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1
Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1
Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1
Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1
Odds of being killed sometime in the next year in any sort of transportation accident: 77 to 1
Odds of being killed in any sort of non-transportation accident: 69 to 1
Odds of being struck by lightning: 576,000 to 1
Odds of being killed by lightning: 2,320,000 to 1
Odds of being murdered: 18,000 to 1
Odds of getting away with murder: 2 to 1
Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 20 to 1
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 7,000 to 1
Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1.3 to 1
Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 3 to 1
Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 25 to 1
Odds of being born a twin in North America: 90 to 1
Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 117 to 1
Odds of being audited by the IRS: 175 to 1
Odds of having your identity stolen: 200 to 1
Odds of dating a millionaire: 215 to 1
Odds of dating a supermodel: 88,000 to 1
Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 220 to 1
Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 563 to 1
Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 22,000 to 1
Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on first try: 10,000 to 1
Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 11,000 to 1
Odds of winning an Academy Award: 11,500 to 1
Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 60,000 to 1
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 649,740 to 1
Odds of spotting a UFO today: 3,000,000 to 1
Odds of becoming president: 10,000,000 to 1
Odds of winning the California lottery: 13,000,000 to 1
Odds of becoming a saint: 20,000,000 to 1
Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 182,138,880,000,000 to 1
Chance of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10.
Chance of dying from any kind of injury during the next year: 1 in 1,820
Chance of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
Chance of dying from an assault: 1 in 16,421
Chance of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585
Chance of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
Chance of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
Chance of dying from exposure to smoke, fire, and flames: 1 in 81,524
Chance of dying in an explosion: 1 in 107,787
Chance that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,000
Chance of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000
Chance of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
Chance of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319
Chance of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
Chance of dying in a terrorist attack while visiting a foreign country: 1 in 650,000
Chance of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000
Chance of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377
Chance of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
Chance of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325
Chance of dying from contact with hot tap water: 1 in 5,005,564
Chance of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000
Chance of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556
Chance of dying from being bitten by a dog: 1 in 700,000
Chance of dying from contact with a venomous animal or plant: 1 in 3,441,325
Chance of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477
Chance of dying from a mountain lion attack in California: 1 in 32,000,000
Chance of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
Chance of having a stroke: 1 in 6
Chance of dying from heart disease: 1 in 3
Chance of getting arthritis: 1 in 7
Chance of suffering from asthma or allergy diseases: 1 in 6
Chance of getting the flu this year: 1 in 10
Chance of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000
Chance of dying from SARS in the United States: 1 in 100,000,000
Chance of American man developing cancer in his lifetime: 1 in 2
Chance of an American woman developing cancer in her lifetime: 1 in 3
Chance of getting prostate cancer: 1 in 6
Chance of getting breast cancer: 1 in 9
Chance of getting colon / rectal cancer: 1 in 26
Chance of beating pancreatic or liver cancer: 1 in 9
Chance of beating thyroid or testicular cancer: 9 in 10
Message edited by author 2008-08-15 16:39:03.
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08/15/2008 05:59:02 PM · #27 |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Here are the statistics I could come up with:
US Population under 18: 74 million
Annual abductions of children by non-family members: about 4,000
That gives us odds of about 1 in 18,500. |
Sure would suck to be one of those 1 in 18,500! :-/ |
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08/15/2008 06:23:19 PM · #28 |
Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 250 to 1
Ha! I have FIVE chances!! :)
Seriously... the information released/published here on the web and/or in the paper is a giant list (with no photos) of all the kids that made honor roll/star honor roll and their grade. Photos are usually only posted on the teachers page when the kids are doing an activity and never with a last name. Photos in the paper are for special awards only. I don't know how it is where you live, but I am guessing it is about the same.
I signed it. I sign it every year. My dad is the head of the school board, I know for a fact what serious precautions they take here to protect the kids. Very rarely do they just ignore safety. If you have concerns about what they publish and where, ask your district representative. :) |
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08/15/2008 06:27:08 PM · #29 |
I don't think that the overall probability of being abducted is relevant. The question is what publishing a directory of students including photos would have on that probability.
In all our ventures we should compare costs, benefits and risks. The cost of publishing a directory is probably marginal and so is the benefit, but if the risk is significant, I wouldn't do it...
(And as  glad2badad said, if you are affected, you don't care how many others were not... One example from my neighborhood: Europe has trains! Lots of them. There was a time when it was popular for boys to pee from bridges down on the train tracks. There was the slight problem of the high-voltage cables above the tracks... Even if only 1 in 1000 died, it would still be a very stupid thing to do, because the benefit is pretty much zero. Is peeing from a bridge worth dying?) |
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08/15/2008 08:18:34 PM · #30 |
Why is everyone assuming that they are making a directory, Go back and read the list. It is pretty clear that they are say that these are the types of things that MIGHT be listed and does not say that they would all be listed at the same time together, and the list consists of the sort of things that one would include in a photo caption of things like a contest, play, sport, etc. You are making assumptions that are not supported by the information presented.
Message edited by author 2008-08-15 20:19:20.
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08/15/2008 08:22:21 PM · #31 |
Living in a culture of fear has its own costs...
I still don't see how this information is going to actually help someone abduct somebody. glad2badad's example is no better than the stranger saying, "hey, Sally, I got some puppies in the car. Wanna see them?" The proper course of action is simply to teach your kids not to go with strangers instead of not publishing their picture on the school website. |
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08/15/2008 08:25:51 PM · #32 |
| then you have a very protected little cotton wall bud house you live in DrAchoo. |
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08/15/2008 08:31:03 PM · #33 |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Living in a culture of fear has its own costs... |
I fully agree and I applaud this mother, for example.
However, I wouldn't see the benefit of a systematic student directory on the web (yes, they probably wouldn't have done this anyway, I know). People are generally putting way too much personal information online in the glorious Web 2.0. (Have you heard the story of the student in Germany who was asked "What do you do for world peace?" in a job interview? He made up some answer, but later realized that he was a member of a group called "Fucking for world peace" on a Facebook-like social networking site...) |
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08/15/2008 08:34:21 PM · #34 |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Living in a culture of fear has its own costs...
I still don't see how this information is going to actually help someone abduct somebody. glad2badad's example is no better than the stranger saying, "hey, Sally, I got some puppies in the car. Wanna see them?" The proper course of action is simply to teach your kids not to go with strangers instead of not publishing their picture on the school website. |
yeah but child sexual predators sometimes fixate on children that they see online, esp school websites..etc. that is why so many parents dont allow photogs to put their kids photos on websites unless they are pw protected.
Could you imagine having a child predator living in an area and browsing local school sites to scope out the kiddies? They would not only know what the kid looks like, but the name, the parents name, activites..etc..
Then it becomes "hey little Johnny Doe your mom said you might wanna pick out a puppy that I have over here in my car."
Kids respond more to adults that know their names. Some kids have a hard time comprehending "stranger" when a stranger knows all about them.
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08/15/2008 08:44:24 PM · #35 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Living in a culture of fear has its own costs... |
I fully agree and I applaud this mother, for example.
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holy crap on a stick, I would so not let my kids do that, ever. Not until they where at least in their teens. Letting a 9 year old find his way home ALL THE WAY across NYC.
I coudnt find my way across NYC when I was there and got lost several times, I can not imagine what a 9 year old would feel .
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08/15/2008 08:53:05 PM · #36 |
These predators you speak of will stop at nothing to get what they want. So along with excluding your child from photos on the school website, you should also exclude them from:
any sporting activity
class trips
parks
doctors office
the classroom itself
any public place
family reunions
camps
libraries
etc...
Just keep them at home so there is no chance of anyone getting a glimpse of them let alone a snap shot.
These people are amongst us so if you think that keeping your kids off the school website is going to help, you better not stop there.
The best thing you can do is be more involved with your children and teach,communicate and make them aware of what to do in certain situations. Not exclude them.
just my opinion
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08/15/2008 09:00:00 PM · #37 |
Originally posted by Sam94720:
One example from my neighborhood: Europe has trains! Lots of them. There was a time when it was popular for boys to pee from bridges down on the train tracks. There was the slight problem of the high-voltage cables above the tracks... Even if only 1 in 1000 died, it would still be a very stupid thing to do, because the benefit is pretty much zero. Is peeing from a bridge worth dying?) |
Busted by Myth Busters :p
Right, I need a pee... where's my nearest train track? |
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08/15/2008 09:05:31 PM · #38 |
Originally posted by JH:
Originally posted by Sam94720:
One example from my neighborhood: Europe has trains! Lots of them. There was a time when it was popular for boys to pee from bridges down on the train tracks. There was the slight problem of the high-voltage cables above the tracks... Even if only 1 in 1000 died, it would still be a very stupid thing to do, because the benefit is pretty much zero. Is peeing from a bridge worth dying?) |
Busted by Myth Busters :p
Right, I need a pee... where's my nearest train track? |
It probably depends on the kind of track. Some take the electricity from the ground others from cables above, etc.
Some news story... |
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08/15/2008 09:06:28 PM · #39 |
Originally posted by JulietNN:
Originally posted by Sam94720:
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Living in a culture of fear has its own costs... |
I fully agree and I applaud this mother, for example.
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holy crap on a stick, I would so not let my kids do that, ever. Not until they where at least in their teens. Letting a 9 year old find his way home ALL THE WAY across NYC.
I coudnt find my way across NYC when I was there and got lost several times, I can not imagine what a 9 year old would feel . |
In some sense, I applaud her for her liberal thinking. That said, I still hold my twelve year old's hand (or the back of his shirt now) when we cross a busy street.
Anyone ever see an old movie called Little Fugitive? |
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08/15/2008 09:06:58 PM · #40 |
there was just that incident a couple fo weeks ago in England, an adult pee'd on the train track line and died, I think it was in or around London.
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08/15/2008 09:08:29 PM · #41 |
Originally posted by LVicari:
These predators you speak of will stop at nothing to get what they want. So along with excluding your child from photos on the school website, you should also exclude them from:
any sporting activity
class trips
parks
doctors office
the classroom itself
any public place
family reunions
camps
libraries
etc...
Just keep them at home so there is no chance of anyone getting a glimpse of them let alone a snap shot.
These people are amongst us so if you think that keeping your kids off the school website is going to help, you better not stop there.
The best thing you can do is be more involved with your children and teach,communicate and make them aware of what to do in certain situations. Not exclude them.
just my opinion |
umm yeah, most of that was pretty darn snide. About the only thing that I can give you credit for was your qoute on being invovled, teach, communicate etc.
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08/15/2008 09:23:31 PM · #42 |
Originally posted by LVicari:
These predators you speak of will stop at nothing to get what they want. So along with excluding your child from photos on the school website, you should also exclude them from:
any sporting activity
class trips
parks
doctors office
the classroom itself
any public place
family reunions
camps
libraries
etc...
Just keep them at home so there is no chance of anyone getting a glimpse of them let alone a snap shot.
These people are amongst us so if you think that keeping your kids off the school website is going to help, you better not stop there.
The best thing you can do is be more involved with your children and teach,communicate and make them aware of what to do in certain situations. Not exclude them.
just my opinion |
Well, I see what you mean and I think you are right.
Pedophilia hysteria especially in the US has gone way too far. The UK is not far behind.
Some interesting news:
//www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,190586,00.html
//www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2194359/A-quarter-of-adults-to-face-%27anti-paedophile%27-tests.html |
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08/15/2008 09:28:14 PM · #43 |
Originally posted by JulietNN:
Originally posted by LVicari:
These predators you speak of will stop at nothing to get what they want. So along with excluding your child from photos on the school website, you should also exclude them from:
any sporting activity
class trips
parks
doctors office
the classroom itself
any public place
family reunions
camps
libraries
etc...
Just keep them at home so there is no chance of anyone getting a glimpse of them let alone a snap shot.
These people are amongst us so if you think that keeping your kids off the school website is going to help, you better not stop there.
The best thing you can do is be more involved with your children and teach,communicate and make them aware of what to do in certain situations. Not exclude them.
just my opinion |
umm yeah, most of that was pretty darn snide. About the only thing that I can give you credit for was your qoute on being invovled, teach, communicate etc. |
Just keep them locked away like that guy in Austria did with his daughter. No chance of abduction there... |
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08/15/2008 09:31:01 PM · #44 |
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08/15/2008 09:33:51 PM · #45 |
From that article;
Martin Narey, chief executive of children's charity Barnardo's, said his behaviour had been affected by the suspicions around adult-child relationships.
Writing in The New Statesman, he says: "I am likely to usher my wife forward if a child falls over in the street, lest my picking up the child could be misinterpreted. We need to address that. Adults - particularly men - should not routinely be seen as potential child abusers.
"And we need urgently to expose the nonsense of 'stranger danger' and convince parents that, although the risk of a child of theirs being abused at all is small, that risk comes not from lurking strangers, but from people known by their children - often relatives - who are able to exploit a child's trust." |
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08/15/2008 09:41:02 PM · #46 |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Are we flabbergasted when people let their kids swim in the ocean where they could be attacked by a shark? |
Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Here are the statistics I could come up with:
US Population under 18: 74 million
Annual abductions of children by non-family members: about 4,000
That gives us odds of about 1 in 18,500. |
Originally posted by from that list:
Chance of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000 |
I think I'd rather take my chances with the shark. ;) |
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08/15/2008 09:46:23 PM · #47 |
Originally posted by JH:
From that article;
Martin Narey, chief executive of children's charity Barnardo's, said his behaviour had been affected by the suspicions around adult-child relationships.
Writing in The New Statesman, he says: "I am likely to usher my wife forward if a child falls over in the street, lest my picking up the child could be misinterpreted. We need to address that. Adults - particularly men - should not routinely be seen as potential child abusers.
Nearly all the offenders in sexual assaults reported to law enforcement were male (96%).
- Sexual Assault of Young Children as Reported to Law Enforcement, 7/00, NCJ 182990, U.S. Department of Justice
"And we need urgently to expose the nonsense of 'stranger danger' and convince parents that, although the risk of a child of theirs being abused at all is small, that risk comes not from lurking strangers, but from people known by their children - often relatives - who are able to exploit a child's trust."
ΓΆ€ΒΆ Acquaintance perpetrators are the most common abusers, constituting approximately 70-90% of all reported perpetrators.
-Finkelhor, D. 1994.
ΓΆ€ΒΆ 89% of child sexual assault cases involve persons known to the child, such as a caretaker or family acquaintance.
-Diana Russell Survey, 1978
ΓΆ€ΒΆ 29% of child sexual abuse offenders are relatives, 60% are acquaintances, and only 11% are strangers.
-Diana Russell, The Secret Trauma, NY:Basic Books, 1986. |
It is true that most victims know their offenders. But that doesnt meant that we should not teach our children stranger danger. I try to instill in both of my children that NO ONE, no body, not mom or dad, or grandma, grandpa, teachers, doctors..etc... NO ONE is to touch your private ares, look at them...etc.. It IS about teaching your children to recognize potential situations when they can be taken advantage of.
And although child molestations occur more from known offenders, (so do most child murders/kidnappings) that doesnt mean that we as parents shouldnt be vigilant about what our children are exposed to (i.e internet, public places..etc..)
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08/16/2008 08:43:03 AM · #48 |
I just received a PM stating that I was out of order. I didn't realize that stating an opinion on this website would be out of order. I guess everyone else with an opinion is also out of order. Or at least the ones that don't agree.
Just remember I have not singled out anyone. I am generalizing when I am stating an opinion.
this is a very hot topic for a lot of people and I am not trying to make lite of it. I take my kid's safety as serious as the next parent. I guess I choose not to live in fear while some do.
Going to check on my kids. |
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08/16/2008 10:36:54 AM · #49 |
Originally posted by LVicari:
I just received a PM stating that I was out of order. I didn't realize that stating an opinion on this website would be out of order. I guess everyone else with an opinion is also out of order. Or at least the ones that don't agree.
Just remember I have not singled out anyone. I am generalizing when I am stating an opinion.
this is a very hot topic for a lot of people and I am not trying to make lite of it. I take my kid's safety as serious as the next parent. I guess I choose not to live in fear while some do.
Going to check on my kids. |
Are you serious?????? was this from someone official? If so this is really stupid. You rather clearly voiced one of the big issues with this sort of reactionary behavior. People become obsessed with very particular issues without thinking about the other related issues. There are people who literally don't let their kids do those sorts of things for fear of them getting kidnapped. It is irrational and ignorant and a problem.
I hope this is not a trend with this site to admonish people for sharing opinions and points of view, that would be really really sad.
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08/16/2008 10:41:46 AM · #50 |
No it was from me, I said that I thought his reply was out of order and snide. I did give him the resons as to why I thought it was. I also sent an apology later on to him and we both understand our point of views now.
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