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03/29/2006 11:07:49 AM · #1 |
If you enter a members challenge you have a 49.2% chance that you will score below average.
If you enter an Open challenge you have a 66.7% chance that you will score below average.
If you enter both member and Open challenges on a regular basis you have a 59% chance that you will score below average.
So when your score is 5.5000 or greater don't complain you are among the best.
NOTE: Average based on a 5.5000 average and figures are gathered from 2006 challenge history based on entry's and how many place above the average in each given challenge. Each stat is broken down between open, member, and overall challenges.
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03/29/2006 11:22:22 AM · #2 |
Originally posted by southern_exposure:
If you enter a members challenge you have a 49.2% chance that you will score below average.
If you enter an Open challenge you have a 66.7% chance that you will score below average.
If you enter both member and Open challenges on a regular basis you have a 59% chance that you will score below average.
So when your score is 5.5000 or greater don't complain you are among the best.
NOTE: Average based on a 5.5000 average and figures are gathered from 2006 challenge history based on entry's and how many place above the average in each given challenge. Each stat is broken down between open, member, and overall challenges. |
5.5 is a theoretical average, not the actual average of votes cast. |
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03/29/2006 11:24:40 AM · #3 |
only works if you measure yourself against the masses
i prefer to measure against myself / my own average ;)
6 of the last 22 (including two current) have been below my average
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03/29/2006 11:26:07 AM · #4 |
Originally posted by Digital Quixote:
[
5.5 is a theoretical average, not the actual average of votes cast. |
Your right the actual average is lower than that.
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03/29/2006 11:31:16 AM · #5 |
Originally posted by southern_exposure:
Your right the actual average is lower than that. |
What *is* the actual average ?
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03/29/2006 11:40:36 AM · #6 |
Originally posted by kashi:
Originally posted by southern_exposure:
Your right the actual average is lower than that. |
What *is* the actual average ? |
5.2985 over 468 challenges. From the first challenge to now!
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03/29/2006 11:48:55 AM · #7 |
| Thank you, Scott, for figuring that out for us! |
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03/29/2006 12:06:55 PM · #8 |
Originally posted by southern_exposure:
If you enter a members challenge you have a 49.2% chance that you will score below average.
If you enter an Open challenge you have a 66.7% chance that you will score below average.
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Doesn't make any sense. There is a 50% chance of scoring below average and a 50% chance of scoring above average. Of course this is completely disregarding skill!
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03/29/2006 01:18:23 PM · #9 |
Originally posted by southern_exposure:
5.2985 over 468 challenges. From the first challenge to now! |
Looking back in the history archives, I would guess that the voting is getting harsher year by year. I don't know if it relates to the rising standards as the site has evolved, or an increase in voters that feel that a third of any challenge deserve 1s |
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03/29/2006 05:09:23 PM · #10 |
Originally posted by talmy:
Originally posted by southern_exposure:
If you enter a members challenge you have a 49.2% chance that you will score below average.
If you enter an Open challenge you have a 66.7% chance that you will score below average.
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Doesn't make any sense. There is a 50% chance of scoring below average and a 50% chance of scoring above average. Of course this is completely disregarding skill! |
It doesn't make sense IF the distribution of scores is symmetric - but if the distribution is lopsided then it does make sense. That's why mathematicians use the terms "mean", "median" and "mode" instead of "average", to remove ambiguity.
50% of scores will be above the median (middle score), but not neccessarily about the mean (add the scores up and divide by the number of entries - which is what was being referred to here). |
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03/29/2006 05:11:41 PM · #11 |
Well it still pisses me off, and math only makes it worse.
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03/29/2006 06:05:01 PM · #12 |
The information is based on this years entries
1. Open challenges: Of the 5041 entries only 1684 of those entries scored a 5.5000 or greater. 33.4%
2. Members Challenge: Of the 3881 entries and only 1971 of those entries scored a 5.5000 or greater. 50.8%
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03/29/2006 06:18:31 PM · #13 |
"... what are your odds?"
After considerable statistical analysis using hypermodern fractal algorythms performed on the latest, greatest parallel processing computers on Earth, the results are IN!...
Odds are you will NOT win a ribbon.
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03/29/2006 06:36:52 PM · #14 |
So how does an individual calculate his personal odds at winning?
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03/29/2006 06:43:16 PM · #15 |
Originally posted by stdavidson:
"... what are your odds?"
After considerable statistical analysis using hypermodern fractal algorythms performed on the latest, greatest parallel processing computers on Earth, the results are IN!...
Odds are you will NOT win a ribbon. |
Damn, I thought you were going to say the answer is "42". lol |
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03/29/2006 06:50:07 PM · #16 |
| I don't think it is possible to compute your odds of winning, DPC is almost a total crapshoot. I think you can guarantee yourself a very low score by entering total crap images, but serious endeavors to win ribbons are not often met with success. You cannot predict what type image the voters will find appealing for any given challenge, given that the image is technically ok. Technically perfect images always help, but the subject, lighting, and composition must conform to the voter's 'vision du jour' which is totally incomprehensible to me (obvious from my scores!)! |
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03/29/2006 07:00:05 PM · #17 |
Originally posted by ElGordo:
I don't think it is possible to compute your odds of winning, DPC is almost a total crapshoot. I think you can guarantee yourself a very low score by entering total crap images, but serious endeavors to win ribbons are not often met with success. You cannot predict what type image the voters will find appealing for any given challenge, given that the image is technically ok. Technically perfect images always help, but the subject, lighting, and composition must conform to the voter's 'vision du jour' which is totally incomprehensible to me (obvious from my scores!)! |
Dude your last one was in the top ten! I would easily win a ribbon if the ones that placed before me hadn't entered:) I'm happy with anything over 6.0, I doubt I will ever when any ribbons but its sure fun to try.
Edit: when = win
Message edited by author 2006-03-29 19:01:11.
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