Early Vote: Kerry Leads Race - DPChallenge Forums

Canon EF 135mm f/2.0L USM

11/01/2004 07:19:30 PM · #1

Early Vote: Kerry Leads Race

Reports from the early vote are trickling in and, at least in two make-or-break battleground states, show a pretty dramatic preference for John Kerry over George W. Bush. In Florida, the latest Gallup poll showed that about a third of the polled voters had already cast ballots and that Kerry led 51 percent to 43 percent among them. In Iowa, according to The Des Moines Register, 27 percent of those polled by Saturday had already voted, and Kerry was similarly favored 52 percent to 41 percent by the early voters.

gingerbaker

Canon EOS-5D

11/01/2004 08:14:16 PM · #2

Early voters are likely to be overrepresented by democratic voters intent on avoiding voting fraud, I would think. Be great if I was wrong and this is how the election will go!

Last year, the polls had Bush falsely ahead by five points at about this time. Perhaps it will be Kerry bigtime.

11/01/2004 08:25:37 PM · #3

My prediction is that Kerry will win the popular vote by a solid 2-5% and the electoral college vote anywhere from 270 to 290.

frychikn

Olympus C-5050Z

11/01/2004 08:26:53 PM · #4

Originally posted by gingerbaker:

.....or perpetuating voting fraud

StevePax

Canon PowerShot S50

11/01/2004 08:44:13 PM · #5

I voted for Bush. There should be a "no wuss" rule in the White House.

11/01/2004 08:48:33 PM · #6

Originally posted by StevePax:

I voted for Bush. There should be a "no wuss" rule in the White House.

There will be, as soon as John Kerry steps into the Oval Office -- finally, we'll have a strong and intelligent commander-in-chief. I can't wait.

Cam

Sony DSC-F717

11/01/2004 08:53:48 PM · #7

Originally posted by bdobe:

Originally posted by StevePax:
I voted for Bush. There should be a "no wuss" rule in the White House.

There will be, as soon as John Kerry steps into the Oval Office -- finally, we'll have a strong and intelligent commander-in-chief. I can't wait.

Well, there is a long way to go. Only tomarrow will tell. I dont put alot of stock in some of the polls that shows Kerry taking the lead. They just cant change that much in such a short period.

At any rate, I think it will be a very close race.

11/02/2004 03:17:06 PM · #8

Final projections from...

Election Projection (Republican run):

Originally posted by :

Electoral Votes: Bush 289, Kerry 249
Popular Vote: Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7%

Race 2004 (Democrat run):
(running very slow today...)

Originally posted by :

Bush wins the presidency with 296 electoral votes. Kerry places second with 242 electoral votes.

Kerry wins the popular vote with 56,569,812 votes (49.31%). Bush places second with 56,226,147 votes (49.01%).

I've taken to favoring these two over electoral-vote.com, though it seems to be the more popular site, based on methodology. The above two sites average recent polls (with some other weighting factors - see the methodologies at the sites), while electoral-vote simply takes the most recent poll. So their numbers have been swinging around pretty wildly based on which poll was determined to be most recent.

But, on the other hand, I've always hated polling in general (afa political races goes), and get especially disgusted by "news" organizations using exit polls to call a winner, all in the name of being first or, dare I suggest, trying to influence voting or turnout. There ought to be a law....

11/02/2004 03:28:41 PM · #9

Here's my final electoral college vote projection:

You can play with this Flash application and make your own projections here:
//www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash?coll=la-home-multimedia

Anachronite

Sony DSC-S85

11/02/2004 03:29:52 PM · #10

Originally posted by bdobe:

dude your dreaming. kerry is the biggest waffleheaded douchebag to run for office in years.. america is in deep trouble if he gets in

Olympus 9-18mm f/4.0-5.6 M.Zuiko Digital ED

11/02/2004 03:39:19 PM · #11

Originally posted by Anachronite:

Originally posted by bdobe:

Originally posted by StevePax:
I voted for Bush. There should be a "no wuss" rule in the White House.

There will be, as soon as John Kerry steps into the Oval Office -- finally, we'll have a strong and intelligent commander-in-chief. I can't wait.

dude your dreaming. kerry is the biggest waffleheaded douchebag to run for office in years.. america is in deep trouble if he gets in

Message edited by author 2004-11-02 15:40:33.

jonr

Olympus OM-D E-M5

11/02/2004 03:39:20 PM · #12

Originally posted by Anachronite:

dude your dreaming. kerry is the biggest waffleheaded douchebag to run for office in years.. america is in deep trouble if he gets in

You mean, IT CAN GET WORSE?!?!?!

Nikon AF-S DX NIKKOR 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR II

11/02/2004 03:52:05 PM · #13

Originally posted by bdobe:

Anachronite,

Your contributions to these threads are truly pathetic.

Careful. I got a post deleted for using that word...

Originally posted by bdobe:

Kerry will win, and his supporters, my self included, will make damn sure that the Right does not do to him what they did to Clinton. I can guarantee it... this time around Democrats are ready to go toe-to-toe, every step of the way, whatever it takes -- for however long it's necessary.

-----------------------------------

Interesting. What does that mean? The right did nothing more extreme than what the left did to Reagan and GW. And, you'll do "whatever it takes"? And that's if he wins? What will you do if he loses? Is this a threat of insurrection? This is pretty disturbing to hear from you.

Message edited by author 2004-11-02 15:52:51.

kosmikkreeper

Nikon D300s

11/02/2004 04:03:32 PM · #14

I've now closed this thread... because I'm Canadian. :-)

Anachronite

Sony DSC-S85

11/02/2004 05:07:28 PM · #15

Originally posted by bdobe:

Anachronite,

Your contributions to these threads are truly pathetic. Kerry will win, and his supporters, my self included, will make damn sure that the Right does not do to him what they did to Clinton. I can guarantee it... this time around Democrats are ready to go toe-to-toe, every step of the way, whatever it takes -- for however long it's necessary.

-----------------------------------

Originally posted by Anachronite:

Originally posted by bdobe:

Originally posted by StevePax:
I voted for Bush. There should be a "no wuss" rule in the White House.

There will be, as soon as John Kerry steps into the Oval Office -- finally, we'll have a strong and intelligent commander-in-chief. I can't wait.

dude your dreaming. kerry is the biggest waffleheaded douchebag to run for office in years.. america is in deep trouble if he gets in

mine are pathetic? your the one that can never answer someone's question. you never have a logical argument. all you do is dance around the issues and argue with cliches and catchy phrases... none of your arguments have merit, nor are they based in fact.. I quit posting meaningful posts because it's pointless to argue with people as blind to the real world as you are... you think america wants to be a socialist country, you claim often to speak for all of us, saying what we want and don;t want.. you have no idea what we want other than your own corrupt, vile, and contempt socialist ideals... I am embarrassed to call you a fellow american... our founding fathers are ashamed of people like you... those like you and madmort do nothing but dance and waffle your way through an argument... you are the one whos posts are pathetic.. frankly you disgust me

mrorange002

Canon EOS-5D

Canon EF 16-35mm f/2.8L USM

11/02/2004 05:25:55 PM · #16

An updated electoral college vote projection:

Message edited by author 2004-11-02 17:39:54.

MikeO

Fujifilm x100

11/02/2004 05:27:24 PM · #17

This is a rant forum not a personal attack forum - lighten up the pair of you. jebus help us all!!

jimmythefish

Canon EOS-10D

Canon EF 17-40mm f/4.0L USM

11/02/2004 05:57:50 PM · #18

Exit polls showing Kerry kicking some serious buttock in the swing states. Oh sweet, sweet redemption. It's just a matter of time kids. Get ready for a new administration.

MadMordegon

11/02/2004 06:05:03 PM · #19

Originally posted by ScottK:

The right did nothing more extreme than what the left did to Reagan and GW.

You should check out "The Hunting of the President".

Canon EF 17-40mm f/4.0L USM

11/02/2004 06:36:42 PM · #20

Originally posted by jimmythefish:

Exit polls showing Kerry kicking some serious buttock in the swing states. Oh sweet, sweet redemption. It's just a matter of time kids. Get ready for a new administration.

Those exit polls are skewed by an abnormally high female vote - something like 59%. Since men favor Bush over Kerry, this should even out nicely when the totals come out.

Also of note, as I understand it, many early state projections in 2000 were skewed as much as 10 points towards Gore, which ended up going for Bush. From one blog:

Originally posted by :

Yes, this is a republican post, but I saw similar numbers elsewhere, I just can't find them at the moment.

And, finally, the 4pm numbers I saw were trending heavily in Bush's direction, though still with Kerry in the lead. But the trend is significant as the day draws on.

THE IMPORTANT THING FOR EVERYONE TO REMEMBER: Democrat or Republican or whatever other persuasion you may be, don't let poll numbers influence your decision to get out and vote! Whether its a question of not casting your Kerry vote because you think he has the lead, or not casting your Bush vote because you think your state has been decided - don't let faulty polling numbers influence your right to vote.

edit: Oh yeah, there's also the unrepresented early voters (who, from what I heard, lean towards Kerry) and absentee voters (who, from what heard, lean even more heavily towards Bush).

Message edited by author 2004-11-02 18:40:20.

jimmythefish

Canon EOS-10D

11/02/2004 06:37:50 PM · #21

Care to make it interesting, if you don't think it so?

Originally posted by ScottK:

[quote=jimmythefish] Exit polls showing Kerry kicking some serious buttock in the swing states. Oh sweet, sweet redemption. It's just a matter of time kids. Get ready for a new administration.

Originally posted by :

...the early exit polls in 2000 looked a good deal bleaker than what we are seeing today. For example, early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by four in Arizona; we won by six. Early exit polls in 2000 showed us even in Colorado; we won by nine. And early exit polls in 2000 showed us down by three in Florida; we ended up slightly more than even. [/qoute]

Yes, this is a republican post, but I saw similar numbers elsewhere, I just can't find them at the moment.

And, finally, the 4pm numbers I saw were trending heavily in Bush's direction, though still with Kerry in the lead. But the trend is significant as the day draws on.

THE IMPORTANT THING FOR EVERYONE TO REMEMBER: Democrat or Republican or whatever other persuasion you may be, don't let poll numbers influence your decision to get out and vote! Whether its a question of not casting your Kerry vote because you think he has the lead, or not casting your Bush vote because you think your state has been decided - don't let faulty polling numbers influence your right to vote.

Cam

Sony DSC-F717

11/02/2004 07:23:20 PM · #22

CNN has an interesting system of tracking the election tonight.

CNN

Maverick

Nikon D200

Tamron SP AF 90mm f/2.8 Di for Nikon

11/02/2004 07:31:51 PM · #23

Hmm, I dunno about Kerry taking PA though. If your prediction is correct but Bush wins PA...it would be an even tie in the electoral college. Let's hope you and I are not both right = P

Originally posted by bdobe:

Here's my final electoral college vote projection:

11/02/2004 07:58:10 PM · #24

So far, CNNs site seems the best.

Interestingly, here's the first numbers for Ohio:

Bush(Incumbent) 13,252 56%
Kerry 10,606 44%

Of course, that's with 0.?% of the precincts reporting, but I like the trend. :)