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11/03/2004 10:45:44 AM · #1 |
In Ohio, 11,473 precincts out of 11,477 have reported. Bush has 2,791,912 votes to Kerry's 2,653,046 votes - a lead of 138,866 votes for the incumbent that, on the face of it, seems decisive. The catch is absentee ballots and provisional ballots, estimated to be anywhere between 75,000-250,000.
Though conservative estimates put the number of absentee and provisional ballots under 100,000 - that is, well inside the lead Bush enjoys. Democrats however claim that the figure is closer to 250,000, and that when those ballots are counted, their candidate could well edge the president out of the race.
Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, in whom the authority of overseeing the electoral process in the state and announcing the result vests, has said that as per state law, absentee ballots will not be counted for the next ten days.
The rules in the state stipulate that an absentee ballot posted on election day, and bearing that day's postmark, is valid. Thus, Blackwell argues that time has to be given for those ballots posted today to arrive in the mail; all mailed in ballots have to then be collated, validated, and counted.
Thus, according to existing rules, Ohio can hang in the balance for the next 11 days.
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11/03/2004 11:02:02 AM · #2 |
| Flash--Kerry will conseed the election at 1PM eastern time. |
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11/03/2004 11:08:07 AM · #3 |
As much as I'd prefer Ohio swing to Kerry, I think it is very close to statistically impossible. I agree all votes should be counted, but by the time the absentee and provisionals are verified, Kerry would have to get almost all the votes. We all know that's not going to happen.
Edit: Sounds like Kerry called Bush and conceded.
Message edited by author 2004-11-03 11:15:56.
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11/03/2004 11:16:18 AM · #4 |
Originally posted by bdobe:
In Ohio, 11,473 precincts out of 11,477 have reported. Bush has 2,791,912 votes to Kerry's 2,653,046 votes - a lead of 138,866 votes for the incumbent that, on the face of it, seems decisive. The catch is absentee ballots and provisional ballots, estimated to be anywhere between 75,000-250,000.
Though conservative estimates put the number of absentee and provisional ballots under 100,000 - that is, well inside the lead Bush enjoys. Democrats however claim that the figure is closer to 250,000, and that when those ballots are counted, their candidate could well edge the president out of the race.
Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, in whom the authority of overseeing the electoral process in the state and announcing the result vests, has said that as per state law, absentee ballots will not be counted for the next ten days.
The rules in the state stipulate that an absentee ballot posted on election day, and bearing that day's postmark, is valid. Thus, Blackwell argues that time has to be given for those ballots posted today to arrive in the mail; all mailed in ballots have to then be collated, validated, and counted.
Thus, according to existing rules, Ohio can hang in the balance for the next 11 days. |
The number is more like 175,000 to 200,000.
And even then, he will need 98% of those votes. And that ain't happening, considering half of them are military, and a major majority of the military is for Bush.
Also... Kerry called Bush and conceded at 11:10am EST. It is over.
Message edited by author 2004-11-03 11:20:15.
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11/03/2004 11:28:48 AM · #5 |
Originally posted by bdobe:
In Ohio, 11,473 precincts out of 11,477 have reported. Bush has 2,791,912 votes to Kerry's 2,653,046 votes - a lead of 138,866 votes for the incumbent that, on the face of it, seems decisive. The catch is absentee ballots and provisional ballots, estimated to be anywhere between 75,000-250,000.
Though conservative estimates put the number of absentee and provisional ballots under 100,000 - that is, well inside the lead Bush enjoys. Democrats however claim that the figure is closer to 250,000, and that when those ballots are counted, their candidate could well edge the president out of the race.
Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, in whom the authority of overseeing the electoral process in the state and announcing the result vests, has said that as per state law, absentee ballots will not be counted for the next ten days.
The rules in the state stipulate that an absentee ballot posted on election day, and bearing that day's postmark, is valid. Thus, Blackwell argues that time has to be given for those ballots posted today to arrive in the mail; all mailed in ballots have to then be collated, validated, and counted.
Thus, according to existing rules, Ohio can hang in the balance for the next 11 days. |
acctually your completely wrong. It's not the absentee ballots that won;t be counted for 11 days. Those are already being counted. It's the provisional ballots that won;t be counted for 11 days. And there are not enough of those to matter as typically only 7% to 25% of provisional ballots are ever deemed to be valid ballots. At that rate Kerry won;t even be within 100,000 votes. It's over. Not to mention that since according to dems during the last election it is the popular vote that should count, not the electoral. If you hold to your stance taken last time, Bush wins by popular vote... unless of course your going to say you didn't really mean it when you said it...
Message edited by author 2004-11-03 11:33:13.
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11/03/2004 01:36:54 PM · #6 |
You're both right. Or wrong. Or, half right each. :)
As I've heard it reported, absentee ballots that were received were counted. As I've heard the refered to "overseas absentee ballots" have 10 days to arrive, and must have been postmarked on or before yesterday. In that 10 days, the provisional ballots would be validated (i.e. was the person who submitted the provisional ballot a valid voter), and invalid ballots would be discarded. (This would probably be the most controversial step, since no standard has been specified at the federal level for this.) After 10 (or 11) days, all "overseas absentee ballots" and validated provisional ballots get counted.
The number of submitted provisional ballots, with supposedly all precincts counted, is around 135,000. The anticipated number of "overseas absentee ballots" is 10,000. If 90% of the provisional ballots are validated (unlikely), there still wouldn't be enough votes to make up the 136,000 difference.
Even though Kerry has conceeded, I hope the entire count is completed, just so the result can be nailed down as accurately as possible. |
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11/03/2004 01:42:40 PM · #7 |
Originally posted by Anachronite:
according to dems during the last election it is the popular vote that should count, not the electoral. If you hold to your stance taken last time, Bush wins by popular vote... unless of course your going to say you didn't really mean it when you said it... |
hahaha...I forgot about all that. That is funny! Heard any of this on the news channels?
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11/03/2004 01:54:59 PM · #8 |
Originally posted by dacrazyrn:
Originally posted by Anachronite:
according to dems during the last election it is the popular vote that should count, not the electoral. If you hold to your stance taken last time, Bush wins by popular vote... unless of course your going to say you didn't really mean it when you said it... |
hahaha...I forgot about all that. That is funny! Heard any of this on the news channels? |
No, but I can bet nearly every Republican is thinking it. I know I was all night. |
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11/03/2004 02:15:38 PM · #9 |
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