Who owns Apple stock? - DPChallenge Forums

01/16/2013 08:00:20 PM · #101

The sky is blue.

Shannon, Jason - discuss.

:-)

scalvert

Canon EOS-5D Mark III

01/16/2013 08:03:16 PM · #102

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

I guess I tend to be conservative and I'd rather take a 35% gain without the volatility (ie. the S&P).

So would I, however since the maximum gain of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund at any point over this period was 31%, that's not a possibility... and ironically 31% is farther from your 35% than 89% was from "double."

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

You posted that AAPL had doubled since Jobs' death. Truthfully, it never has, (10/5/2011 close 375, it has never hit 750) but it almost did so I gave you the benefit of the point.

It was an off the cuff remark (like yours above) regarding the magnitude of the rise (89%) in Apple stock since Jobs' death was reported (effectively the low on the 6th). Whether the actual number was 99.9999% or 89% does not change the point (typical straw man argument) that this is a spectacular gain, and a stark repudiation of the notion that selling on news of his death would be smart.

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

I think AAPL stock now looks much closer to post-boom Microsoft than it does to pre-boom Microsoft. In other words, I think the massive gains are over

If I had a nickel for every time I've heard that since the success of the initial Bondi Blue iMac, I wouldn't bother investing at all. Market analysts and industry pundits declared that nobody would pay hundreds for an MP3 player, that the iTunes Store would fail, that the Cube was a sure sign of Apple's decline, that MacBooks wouldn't sell, that the iPhone could never compete with much less expensive Blackberry and Nokia models, that the iPad was a product that didn't fill any need, yadayadayada. I don't think a week has passed since Jobs came back that someone, somewhere hasn't predicted that the magic is gone and impending doom all but guaranteed. That's why Apple's P/E ratio at its pinnacle never went as high as the directionless, post-boom Microsoft is right now.

Nikon AF-S Nikkor 70-200mm f/2.8G ED VR II

01/16/2013 09:41:03 PM · #103

Originally posted by scalvert:

...and a stark repudiation of the notion that selling on news of his death would be smart...

Ah, here is the disconnect (there is always a disconnect). I was never talking about whether to sell on his death, but whether to BUY on his death. Mike raised the same question, (ie. is Apple the same company after Steve Jobs? He says no). A buy and hold policy from that point would not have gained you much more or less than the S&P with the addition of much more volatility. A buy and sell could have earned you a pretty penny, but we all know how hard it is to time the top (I saw you recommending a buy last March, but I have never seen you recommend a sell. Either that means you value a buy and hold approach (see above for how that's done) or you have no idea when to sell (join the crowd)).

I am far from extreme to just say the gleam is off the stock. I know quite enough to know that such an assessment "makes sense" (which doesn't imply that it's the ONLY assessment that makes sense or even that the stock won't suddenly go to 700 again).

You have every right to own and buy AAPL. I have every right not to. We can agree to disagree without it seeming to be some big deal.

Your last paragraph is nice, except all those products came under the watchful eye of Steve Jobs. You even say "since Steve Jobs came back". The man is gone now and Apple certainly has taken a few awkward steps since that point (maps, etc.). When Apple comes up with the next greatest thing AFTER Steve's death, I'll perk my ears up and pay more attention. Hey, the Oregon Ducks have been an awesome team the last four years, but now that Chip Kelly is gone, would you bet the house on another run at the national championship? They might still do it, but is it more likely or less likely after his leaving?

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 21:44:29.

MattO

Nikon D4

01/16/2013 09:57:40 PM · #104

I'd like to know who I need to talk to about getting the last 15 minutes of my life back that I wasted reading the two of you bickering?

I'm glad to see the common denominator in the arguments I've been in on the site in the past aren't me. Because you two are really good at being hard headed!

Canon EF-S 15-85mm f/3.5-5.6 IS USM

01/17/2013 12:27:04 AM · #105

I'm not hard headed! He is!

Actually I think it would be fun to have a friendly wager. We note the close of AAPL and the S&P today and then prognosticate six months out. Since I am down on the stock I would predict the maximum that AAPL would beat the S&P over that time and since Shannon is up on the stock he would predict the minimum AAPL would beat the S&P by. Either person who is incorrect (and we both could be) would post a three word post saying "I was wrong" (dreaded words for both of us). No gloating. No rubbing it in anybody's face. Others are welcome to make predictions as well.

What do you say Shannon? You got the rocks to back up what you've been saying?

Edit to add: S&P 1472.63. AAPL 506.09

Message edited by author 2013-01-17 00:40:06.

LN13

Canon EOS-60D

01/17/2013 08:16:51 AM · #106

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

9:50 AMAppleâ��s (AAPL) staggering success over the past few years can be attributed to the combination of several key factors. Great leadership is one, great products is another. Appleâ��s deep pockets and monstrous marketing budget have played an equal role in the companyâ��s success but according to a new report, Apple may be losing its grip on an important demographic.
Among teens, Apple is no longer cool. The news comes from the Buzz Marketing Group, an agency that specializes in youth marketing.

Popularity is always a double-edged sword with teenagers and according to the sentiment observed by Buzz, Apple is now too popular to be popular. Replacing iPhones and iPads as the object of teensâ�� desire is Microsoftâ��s (MSFT) Surface tablet and Galaxy smartphones from Samsung (005930).

â��Teens are telling us Apple is done,â�� Buzz Marketing Groupâ��s Tina Wells told Forbes. â��Apple has done a great job of embracing Gen X and older [Millennials], but I donâ��t think they are connecting with Millennial kids. [Theyâ��re] all about Surface tablets/laptops and Galaxy.â��

If the firm is indeed onto something, a negative trend in sentiment among teens could have a negative impact on Appleâ��s business in the short-term, but even more so in the long-term as todayâ��s teens age and enter key buying demographics.

Buy MSFT! Buy MSFT!

01/17/2013 10:26:34 AM · #107

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

OOH !!! SHALLONGE !!!

01/17/2013 10:31:44 AM · #108

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by whiterook:
It's look like a head and shoulder for the last year on a five year chart and the last three lows are lowest which out making higher high.

If you are reading the tea leaves it also made a "death cross" three or four weeks ago.

I tend not to pay attention to this stuff though. It does seem just like reading tea leaves.

Chartists... It's hard no to let your eye carry forward patterns from the past. But it's just as useful as trying to predict a coin toss based on the previous coin toss.

Canon EF-S 15-85mm f/3.5-5.6 IS USM

01/17/2013 10:48:22 AM · #109

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

OOH !!! SHALLONGE !!!

Only if he isn't...SHICKEN!!! :D

LN13

Canon EOS-60D

01/17/2013 12:40:57 PM · #110

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

OOH !!! SHALLONGE !!!

Only if he isn't...SHICKEN!!! :D

Now I have to rewatch the whole series again!

01/17/2013 01:27:16 PM · #111

Originally posted by larryslights:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

OOH !!! SHALLONGE !!!

Only if he isn't...SHICKEN!!! :D

Now I have to rewatch the whole series again!

I just did it again a few months ago. Keep hearing about a movie, but we'll see if it actually happens.

01/17/2013 04:01:51 PM · #112

Man, it'd down three bucks today. I'd be driving over to Connecticut looking for a little restitution...

01/17/2013 04:03:41 PM · #113

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Man, it'd down ~~three~~ 4.5 bucks today. I'd be driving over to Connecticut looking for a little restitution...

The way I see it, Shannon owes me ~~$15~~ $22.50 so far! Where's my lawyer!
ETA... I think there may have been a case where someone acted on a stock buy because they overheard some financial guys talking, and later sued them. There may be precedent!

Message edited by author 2013-01-17 16:11:44.

Sony 24-70mm F4 Vario-Tessar T* FE OSS

01/17/2013 11:30:55 PM · #114

I promise I'm not seeking these articles out. They just come across Zite (ironically an iPad app).

Is Apple doubt starting to creep in?

I haven't said anything on this thread that isn't said in his article. All I'm saying is I'm not the nutter some have made me out to be.

Bear_Music

Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra

01/17/2013 11:34:17 PM · #115

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

All I'm saying is I'm not the nutter some have made me out to be.

Says the man with a bug on the end of his nose...

01/18/2013 12:15:31 AM · #116

:) that's me!

I just read that Al Gore just cashed in some stock options for...$7.43 a share. Wouldn't that be some sweet action!!!

jeger

01/18/2013 09:49:26 AM · #117

Well Slippy, it hasn't plummeted to oblivion... so far so good :)

01/18/2013 09:54:43 AM · #118

Originally posted by jeger:

Well Slippy, it hasn't plummeted to oblivion... so far so good :)

We aren't in the poor house yet, but I'm saving a nice big cardboard box from xmas just in case. You're welcome to join me, if it comes to that. Body-warmth, you know. ;-)

jeger

01/18/2013 09:59:04 AM · #119

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

Originally posted by jeger:
Well Slippy, it hasn't plummeted to oblivion... so far so good :)

We aren't in the poor house yet, but I'm saving a nice big cardboard box from xmas just in case. You're welcome to join me, if it comes to that. Body-warmth, you know. ;-)

I'll bring the chili!

Nikon AF Micro-Nikkor 60mm f2.8D

01/22/2013 12:26:53 PM · #120

I usually assume someone knows something before the rest of us, but AAPL isn't really moving today. Earnings tomorrow. Verizon reported today and said they activated quite a few iPhones. Some say that bodes well. Others say cheaper (ie. less memory) or older models are becoming more commonly used.

(cue suspenseful music)

David Ey

Nikon D80

01/22/2013 01:16:36 PM · #121

Forest Gump used to own some shares.

01/22/2013 01:49:00 PM · #122

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

It'll be interesting to see what happens, if anything at all.

01/22/2013 04:08:04 PM · #123

It slowly gained throughout the day so maybe that's a good sign. Trading was lighter than usual though.

01/22/2013 04:26:44 PM · #124

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

It slowly gained throughout the day so maybe that's a good sign. Trading was lighter than usual though.

I have two predictions after the earning report tomorrow:

1. Stock falls or remains flat and Shannon's absence from this thread continues.

2. Stock rises and Shannon reappears to say he told you so.