Who owns Apple stock? - DPChallenge Forums

01/16/2013 01:43:47 PM · #76

Originally posted by scalvert:

Originally posted by jeger:
Scalvert, do you think it's a good time to pick up more stock?

Absolutely. The December quarter was almost certainly a blowout since Apple products were 4 of the top 5 items on Christmas wish lists this year. Literally every family I know got an iSomething for Christmas, which didn't occur to me until two friends separately mentioned the same thing about every family they know. I would expect the stock to go up in anticipation of next Wednesday's [likely record] earnings numbers. Where it goes from there, however, is trickier and investors will be looking carefully at whatever they can glean from forward guidance. The iPad and iPhone will get updates sooner than usual, but nobody knows when or if we'll see an Apple TV, music subscription service, etc. The 3/4G versions of the iPads and iPhone 5 will begin selling in China this Friday, and I suspect a deal with China Mobile is coming soon. It may be a while before we know if Android market gains are real or smoke and mirrors since both platforms report their shipments as "sales," but Apple products sell through (or out) rapidly rather than sitting on shelves. Actually, I'd like to know how it's even possible for competitors to make significant gains given that Tim Cook's strength is supply chain, and Apple has routinely locked up most critical materials and manufacturing capacity in an effort to keep up with demand. We'll know some of these things in a week, but I consider the stock undervalued and low risk at the moment.

Thanks for the feedback. I feel the same in that with the release of the ipad mini and all the revamped products they released late last year (iphone, ipad, iMac, mac mini) that sales will be good. Longer term is harder to predict but with music, app and movie purchases being easily transferable to multiple devices, most people would need have to have a really good reason for changing brands.

The only thing I'm beginning to hate is when company's post profit, but if it doesn't meet "analysts" expectations, the stock often declines.

Going to give this some thought.

01/16/2013 01:47:57 PM · #77

Originally posted by scalvert:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Like I said above, it's easier to know when to buy, it's harder to know when to sell. If you have stock that you owned on 10/5/2011, you'd be up 30% in that period, equal with the S&P. How am I being unreasonable pointing that out?

For the very reason that you DON'T know when to buy or sell. Look at the chart comparison I posted. An investor would have been FAR better off with AAPL than the S&P for virtually the entire year to this point (and only worse off for a few days at the beginning). Heck, even today the S&P is down while AAPL is up nearly 4%.

Really, Shannon? This is your grasp of things? It's up 4% today because it's rebounding from being DOWN 8% in the last 5 days. I watch the market every single day and I know what AAPL has been doing and I know lately one would not want to own it. And being "far better off" for the year doesn't matter one bit unless you sold. You can't buy things with virtual profits. This is the whole point. We all know AAPL has risen and in the last year hit an all time high of 702. If you didn't sell, it don't matter.

We all know you are a fan of Apple. I would recommend you try not to let that cloud your judgement with the stock.

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 13:48:45.

01/16/2013 01:50:44 PM · #78

Originally posted by jeger:

Going to give this some thought.

Nobody really knows what's going to happen with it. Two headlines today on AAPL are exactly opposite. "Why AAPL could hit $450" and "Call for AAPL to rebound to $600 of to fast start". It's a total crapshoot if you are just going on headlines or the advice of photography buddies. Don't ponder too long. Earnings are next week so you could miss the bounce or plunge...

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 13:55:13.

01/16/2013 02:03:11 PM · #79

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by jeger:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
This probably means you and I never know as much as the institutional guys and we'll always be behind the curve.

Unfortunately this is the case.

Which is why I'm starting to swear off stock and just go with index funds...

Index funds for me too. Reading "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" convinced me, and it is confirmed every day I see the track records of big-wig financial advisers and analysts. Even they are clueless. I may even phase out my regular stocks.

01/16/2013 02:05:14 PM · #80

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

If you have stock that you owned on 10/5/2011, you'd be up 30% in that period, equal with the S&P.

Really, Jason? This is your grasp of things? It's only even with the S&P now because it's retreated from being UP so much this year and people were locking in profits in anticipation of a possible capital gains hike with the fiscal cliff. Don't quit your day job.

I'm not really a "fan" of Apple so much as a longtime user and observer of the business. Just because I'm acutely familiar with the few stocks I follow doesn't mean I like everything they make or do. A shame really, because I'd be a multimillionaire if I simply kept the AAPL stock I used to own instead of listening people like you.

jeger

01/16/2013 02:13:51 PM · #81

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by jeger:
Going to give this some thought.

Nobody really knows what's going to happen with it. Two headlines today on AAPL are exactly opposite. "Why AAPL could hit $450" and "Call for AAPL to rebound to $600 of to fast start". It's a total crapshoot if you are just going on headlines or the advice of photography buddies. Don't ponder too long. Earnings are next week so you could miss the bounce or plunge...

I made the plunge. Bought a handful of shares at $507. Only time will tell if it was the right decision...

01/16/2013 02:14:37 PM · #82

Originally posted by jeger:

The only thing I'm beginning to hate is when company's post profit, but if it doesn't meet "analysts" expectations, the stock often declines.

The good news is that analysts have toned down their expectations somewhat, and there's a decent chance Apple could surprise as much as they did last yearâ�� which sparked a huge rally. This year is a 13 week quarter compared to last year's 14 week quarter, so it's not exactly apples-to-apples, so to speak, but a record is on tap nonetheless.

01/16/2013 02:20:56 PM · #83

Originally posted by jeger:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by jeger:
Going to give this some thought.

Nobody really knows what's going to happen with it. Two headlines today on AAPL are exactly opposite. "Why AAPL could hit $450" and "Call for AAPL to rebound to $600 of to fast start". It's a total crapshoot if you are just going on headlines or the advice of photography buddies. Don't ponder too long. Earnings are next week so you could miss the bounce or plunge...

I made the plunge. Bought a handful of shares at $507. Only time will tell if it was the right decision...

I'm right there with you. Just bought some more a minute ago. Good luck to us. :-)

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 14:23:50.

01/16/2013 02:24:20 PM · #84

Originally posted by scalvert:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
If you have stock that you owned on 10/5/2011, you'd be up 30% in that period, equal with the S&P.

Really, Jason? This is your grasp of things? It's only even with the S&P now because it's retreated from being UP so much this year and people were locking in profits in anticipation of a possible capital gains hike with the fiscal cliff. Don't quit your day job.

Did you lock in your profits? It sounds like you still own it. I guess we both need to keep working.

Blaming this on the capital gains hike doesn't match the pattern of the stock at all. Nobody was talking capital gains hikes in Sept and it would be too late after Jan 1.

Whatever. We can agree to disagree. I'm not buying at this point and I hope the best for you and the other guys who are buying. I'll stick with index funds.

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 14:28:06.

01/16/2013 02:27:11 PM · #85

You two are always arguing. My only question is, who will get custody of me after the divorce?

01/16/2013 02:29:23 PM · #86

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

You two are always arguing. My only question is, who will get custody of me after the divorce?

Well, if AAPL skyrockets you can live in his mansion. If it tanks, I guess you can keep off the streets and live with me. :)

The last time Shannon told you to buy it was at $545. Unfortunately he never told you when to sell...

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 14:30:11.

01/16/2013 02:38:51 PM · #87

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Did you lock in your profits? It sounds like you still own it.

You really are dense. I sold for a profit in 2001 ("free" new cars for my wife and I) and bought back in later. I'm up a lot on that, too, but if I had simply held the earlier batch, it would be worth over $2.5M today.

jeger

01/16/2013 02:42:34 PM · #88

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

Originally posted by jeger:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

Originally posted by jeger:
Going to give this some thought.

Nobody really knows what's going to happen with it. Two headlines today on AAPL are exactly opposite. "Why AAPL could hit $450" and "Call for AAPL to rebound to $600 of to fast start". It's a total crapshoot if you are just going on headlines or the advice of photography buddies. Don't ponder too long. Earnings are next week so you could miss the bounce or plunge...

I made the plunge. Bought a handful of shares at $507. Only time will tell if it was the right decision...

I'm right there with you. Just bought some more a minute ago. Good luck to us. :-)

Slippy, it's up $1 ... Sell Sell Sell! :D

01/16/2013 02:44:13 PM · #89

Originally posted by scalvert:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
Did you lock in your profits? It sounds like you still own it.

You really are dense. I sold for a profit in 2001 ("free" new cars for my wife and I) and bought back in later. I'm up a lot on that, too, but if I had simply held the earlier batch, it would be worth over $2.5M today.

Please cut it with the insults. I am not saying anything about owning it in the past. It obviously was an awesome stock. People made a killing on Microsoft. Does that mean I want to own it today? The conversation where I entered was talking about post-Jobs Apple. Why do you act like this toward me? I'm just having a conversation about a stock. Why is it always so personal with you?

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 14:45:35.

01/16/2013 02:54:55 PM · #90

Originally posted by jeger:

...Slippy, it's up $1 ... Sell Sell Sell! :D

W00T!!! We're freaking geniuses!!! :-D

01/16/2013 02:56:06 PM · #91

Originally posted by scalvert:

...if I had simply held the earlier batch, it would be worth over $2.5M today.

Sometimes hindsight is a real kick in the nards!

01/16/2013 03:10:27 PM · #92

Personally I'm contemplating selling everything for now because the markets did not like the last time congress squabbled over the debt ceiling. Does anybody really believe it's going to work out any differently this time?

01/16/2013 03:29:58 PM · #93

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

I would absolutely LOVE to know when to sell everything so I could re-buy at the bottom of a major dip like the 2009 crash. Alas, even the big-time pro's didn't see that coming.

If you hold all your index stocks long-term, it 'should' turn out OK in the long run. But it would be SO much better to see the future and sell just before a crash. Patterns have a way of cancelling themselves out, as everyone is trying to play them. It's a pretty "Random Walk." It's tough for me not to see patterns, as I make my living finding patterns in geological data. But in the market, the past isn't a very good indicator of the future.

Heck, even Shannon screwed up a shot at becoming a millionaire.

01/16/2013 03:47:55 PM · #94

Originally posted by DrAchoo:

I am not saying anything about owning it in the past. It obviously was an awesome stock. People made a killing on Microsoft. Does that mean I want to own it today? The conversation where I entered was talking about post-Jobs Apple. Why do you act like this toward me? I'm just having a conversation about a stock. Why is it always so personal with you?

Oh, nothing personal at all. If someone makes an absurd post, I will often point out the absurdity (and repeating the criticism with that person's own numbers is a good way to do that). Post something that makes sense and I'm all sweet and lovable. This particular time, you chose to jump in on whether investing in Apple was a good idea after his death. It was, period. A 35% gain as of today even WITH the recent slump.

At $545 last March, there was a question of whether Apple was a buy, and it certainly was at that time. Whether or not it remains a buy or sell in August or November or today is a completely different question.

01/16/2013 04:14:10 PM · #95

Originally posted by scalvert:

Originally posted by DrAchoo:
I am not saying anything about owning it in the past. It obviously was an awesome stock. People made a killing on Microsoft. Does that mean I want to own it today? The conversation where I entered was talking about post-Jobs Apple. Why do you act like this toward me? I'm just having a conversation about a stock. Why is it always so personal with you?

Oh, nothing personal at all. If someone makes an absurd post, I will often point out the absurdity (and repeating the criticism with that person's own numbers is a good way to do that). Post something that makes sense and I'm all sweet and lovable. This particular time, you chose to jump in on whether investing in Apple was a good idea after his death. It was, period. A 35% gain as of today even WITH the recent slump.

At $545 last March, there was a question of whether Apple was a buy, and it certainly was at that time. Whether or not it remains a buy or sell in August or November or today is a completely different question.

Okey doke. I guess I tend to be conservative and I'd rather take a 35% gain without the volatility (ie. the S&P). Maybe you should give people a little leeway with how you interpret the "sense" to be found in their posts. You posted that AAPL had doubled since Jobs' death. Truthfully, it never has, (10/5/2011 close 375, it has never hit 750) but it almost did so I gave you the benefit of the point. You just always seem to be so adamant that your ideas are the only ones that make sense (about lots of things from Rant to SC arguments to this). I'm just posting another opinion. I think AAPL stock now looks much closer to post-boom Microsoft than it does to pre-boom Microsoft. In other words, I think the massive gains are over (and congrats on you cashing in on some of that ride up). I think the downsides are more significant than in the past (and Jobs' death DOES mean something). People who buy need to go in knowing this.

I saw a blog article that said marketing research seems to say that among teen kids Apple is "over" and they are looking to the next thing. Everything that is cool becomes uncool at some point. I instantly thought of you...(lol, not about the cool thing)

Message edited by author 2013-01-16 16:19:31.

01/16/2013 04:20:14 PM · #96

9:50 AMAppleâ��s (AAPL) staggering success over the past few years can be attributed to the combination of several key factors. Great leadership is one, great products is another. Appleâ��s deep pockets and monstrous marketing budget have played an equal role in the companyâ��s success but according to a new report, Apple may be losing its grip on an important demographic.
Among teens, Apple is no longer cool. The news comes from the Buzz Marketing Group, an agency that specializes in youth marketing.

Popularity is always a double-edged sword with teenagers and according to the sentiment observed by Buzz, Apple is now too popular to be popular. Replacing iPhones and iPads as the object of teensâ�� desire is Microsoftâ��s (MSFT) Surface tablet and Galaxy smartphones from Samsung (005930).

â��Teens are telling us Apple is done,â�� Buzz Marketing Groupâ��s Tina Wells told Forbes. â��Apple has done a great job of embracing Gen X and older [Millennials], but I donâ��t think they are connecting with Millennial kids. [Theyâ��re] all about Surface tablets/laptops and Galaxy.â��

If the firm is indeed onto something, a negative trend in sentiment among teens could have a negative impact on Appleâ��s business in the short-term, but even more so in the long-term as todayâ��s teens age and enter key buying demographics.

01/16/2013 04:20:52 PM · #97

Originally posted by Strikeslip:

Originally posted by jeger:
...Slippy, it's up $1 ... Sell Sell Sell! :D

W00T!!! We're freaking geniuses!!! :-D

Dang! It ended down $1 ... Send the lynch mob for Shannon!

Sony DT 18-200mm f/3.5-6.3 Aspherical ED High Magnification Zoom Lens for Sony Alpha

01/16/2013 04:28:57 PM · #98

I TOLD you! Man I'm smart! ;)

whiterook

Sony DSLR-A700

01/16/2013 05:27:56 PM · #99

It's look like a head and shoulder for the last year on a five year chart and the last three lows are lowest which out making higher high.