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10/23/2012 06:54:03 PM · #26 |
Wow... The bigger issue is pretty important... Sounds more like a witch hunt from the outside - I have no clue of the details and depends how close this article is to the reality. In the end it will hurt the country if they lose their geologists slowly over time because of the potential of getting a "prediction" correct.....
What do people expect next... Holding politicians to their word :-) |
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10/23/2012 06:56:07 PM · #27 |
Originally posted by Alexkc:
That earthquahe hit my region. I woke up that night frightened and my wife (she was not yet my wife at that time) lived very close to L'Aquila. People I knew died. My wife was ok but now she can't sleep the same way she used to do before that day.
Scientists are one the most important things for people around the world, maybe the most important.
But that article didn't say a lot of things: people were scared in L'Aquila, the eartquake series was VERY long and some them of them complained several times against Italian government because some houses were not safe. L'Aquila has been destroyed 3 times after long earthquake series. Each time people asked the scientists of how dangerous was the situation they answered: 'it's very unlikely that a major earthquake could hit L'Aquila'.
I agree they shouldn't condemn scientists, but this time a lot of people should feel guilty for what happened, at the least for being too superficial.
It's easy to make fun of an entire country, but our worst sin was still electing 3 times Berlusconi... |
And if they had said something like, "The big one could happen any day now." and people had panicked, evacuated and caused all kinds of chaos, should they also be jailed for that?
It's like lightning. Every scientist will tell you that even during a thunderstorm, you're unlikely to get hit by lightning...yet people do.
FWIW I've been in a major earthquake too, seen my friend's homes red tagged for demolition due to the damage, houses collapsed on sleeping people and afterward, people sleeping outside in tents for months because they're too afraid.
Not fun. |
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10/24/2012 07:09:30 AM · #28 |
Originally posted by BrennanOB:
Nature is not kind to us, we have to build assuming she will try to knock down what we build and kill us. When there is a catastrophe, we can see who built the best they could, and who was the politically connected lowball bidder who was only interested in their profit margin. Those people should be punished when their greed kills people. |
unfortunately as a society we dont have unlimited funds so we must accept some risk in design. Costs are a huge, if not the most important, influence. You absolutely can not and should not design for a perfect storm of events. You dont design buildings in Florida to handle the same snow loads as Michigan. You dont design buildings in Dallas to the same seismic conditions as California, ideally you would design everything to withstand it all, but its not economically feasible to do so and massive waste of resources.
One of my favorite quotes/jokes: "Anyone can design a structure to stay up forever, but only a civil/structural engineer can design one to almost fall down."
We dont design structures to withstand everything, we design them just enough so that so they most likely withstand set of given assumptions and more times than we would like those initial assumptions are exceeded, but not often enough to justify pouring resources into over designing everything. |
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10/24/2012 07:47:25 AM · #29 |
I was sure that news were quite different than what really happened in the process.
For ones who can read Italian language (I assume very few) - here.
For the others - here. |
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10/24/2012 08:08:00 AM · #30 |
Originally posted by Alexkc:
I was sure that news were quite different than what really happened in the process.
For ones who can read Italian language (I assume very few) - here.
For the others - here. |
thanks, and still, the scientist are being condemned for giving their opinion, not for failing to predict the earthquake, however it's equally as absurd. |
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10/24/2012 08:28:54 AM · #31 |
Originally posted by mike_311:
thanks, and still, the scientist are being condemned for giving their opinion, not for failing to predict the earthquake, however it's equally as absurd. |
I know the difference is very subtle, but still important. But it's a very complicated matter and it mainly deals with the dictatorship we experienced under Berlusconi's government.
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10/24/2012 08:33:00 AM · #32 |
Interesting that i just came across a article in Roads and Bridges this morning. In China, they built an expressway, total project length is 65km includes 52 bridges and 11 tunnels, total length of project is 2/3 bridges and tunnels, started in 2008 and is expected to be completed a month ago. total cost, $610M. yes, a whopping $610M.
Not to mention that they have had 6 bridge collapses since July 2011 that they blame on overloaded trucks.
and Italy is throwing some seismologists in jail for giving an opinion. |
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10/24/2012 08:37:32 AM · #33 |
//www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html
This article provides background on what actually occurred. |
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10/24/2012 08:58:23 AM · #34 |
like the article says its a risk assessment, now if it as found that they intentionally covered something up for some personal or political gain, then yes, suppressing information for some nefarious cause should be prosecuted, but if these guys just got it wrong by basing it off the information that they thought to be correct than that's sad.
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10/24/2012 11:37:44 AM · #35 |
Ok -- I just skimmed it -- but I can't see that the seismologists are the ones that should be looking at the population density and the age of the buildings. Don't you think that's the government's job?
Hurricane Katrina -- the weather experts are predicting the weather and the fact that there's a hurricane coming. The government should be looking at the poor quality or the levies and the implications therein.
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10/24/2012 12:29:23 PM · #36 |
Originally posted by vawendy:
Ok -- I just skimmed it -- but I can't see that the seismologists are the ones that should be looking at the population density and the age of the buildings. Don't you think that's the government's job?
Hurricane Katrina -- the weather experts are predicting the weather and the fact that there's a hurricane coming. The government should be looking at the poor quality or the levies and the implications therein. |
we live in a reactive society, we are rarely proactive in evaluations. its rare that a government agency evaluates the condition of something until we have a failure. Funding is a big reason again. Why waste money on something that may never happen? |
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