|
| Author | Thread |
|
|
01/13/2004 10:59:14 PM · #1 |
I haven't been in this market long enough to know if there are annual price fluctuations like in other consumer electronics. I'm now almost in the price range of the types of prosumer cameras that I've been looking at (F717, Panasonic Lumix, Several Canons) and am wondering how long I should wait/save... Is there a price fluctuation due soon? What is the PMA in February?
Also in a recent thread (that I can't find right now and can't remember the original topic) there was a rumor about the Rebel (300d) price plummeting to around $600 in June (I think it was). Has anyone heard anything to validate this possibility? Also with the F828 just released, what do you expect to happen to the F717 prices?
I have developed a new patience, but I don't know how long it will last so any input will be greatly appreciated!
Message edited by author 2004-01-13 23:03:20.
|
|
|
|
01/13/2004 11:27:50 PM · #2 |
Please take my opinions, following, as just that - my opinions. I feel that there has not been a repeatable seasonal price fluctuation, just a rather steep erosion of price (increasing function at decreasing price). As for the $600 rebel, I think that market saturation is perhaps further away than June (so prices will not fall much in near term), however with the introduction of the Nikon D70 there may be reason for Canon to turn up the heat and reduce the price somewhat. I do think that it will be at least 18 months, perhaps 24, before we see the Rebel (or equivalent) at $600, based on the current rate of price erosion (but who knows if this rate will hold??). It will be interesting to see what happens to the price of the 10D in the next few months. As we pass the one year anniversary of its introduction this Spring, it's possible that we might see some price reduction, though my no means certain.
As with any technology investment, plan for obsolescence. A good strategy is to purchase relatively new but not cutting edge technology, this way you reap the benefits of reasonably long useful life, but you do not pay the (exponentially) higher cost to be on the bleeding edge. A great example is with CPUs. You can buy a 2.4GHz Pentium 4 for under $180, but a 3.2GHz chip will set you back $500. Buy Intel's latest teaser, the "extreme" version of the 3.2GHz chip, and tack on another $400 to go from 512KB to 2MB cache ($400??!! OUCH!). Relating this back to cameras, your question on the 717 vs. 828 is a good one. Certainly if the 828 is a success, the price of 717 should drop. If you will be satisfied with the 717 long enough, it may be a very attractive buy. When the follow-on camera does not do so well, the prices on the older model seem to fall less, due to continued demand for the older model.
Another consideration would be how much of your investment would be "transferrable"; with the Rebel or D70 your lens investment (inevitably more $$ than the body) will transfer to the next body, however with a prosumer cam, probably only some accessories will transfer.
Finally, do wait to see what PMA brings. Though PMA announcements will not change pricing immediately, you may gain valuable knowledge of what releases are forthcoming that may drop prices on models you are interested in.
|
|
|
|
01/13/2004 11:36:01 PM · #3 |
I bought my S602 about 1 1/2 years ago for $700, and today at the original place I bought it, a similar camera the S7000 (a newer model) is $630 (don't sell mine anymore, but these are very similar). And at Walmart it's $650. And on eBay, the cheapest is about $500 (some risk involved).
So the point is, if the 7% to 28% discount you might save on the current price of the camera you want is worth waiting a YEAR AND HALF to you, or you simply can't afford it now, then wait. Obviously this is a very general example and other factors make a difference in the purchase decision, but I'm saying that you could die tomorrow (God forbid) so buy the camera you want TODAY and have fun with it, and worry about paying off the credit card you charge it on, tomorrow. :)
Good luck in your choice!
Message edited by author 2004-01-13 23:38:30. |
|
|
|
01/14/2004 12:27:10 AM · #4 |
Originally posted by kirbic:
As for the $600 rebel, I think that market saturation is perhaps further away than June (so prices will not fall much in near term), however with the introduction of the Nikon D70 there may be reason for Canon to turn up the heat and reduce the price somewhat. I do think that it will be at least 18 months, perhaps 24, before we see the Rebel (or equivalent) at $600, based on the current rate of price erosion (but who knows if this rate will hold??). |
The rumor I heard (I believe) was based on the release of the Nikon and Canon's desire to remain the dominant force in that market...
|
|
|
|
01/14/2004 12:34:37 AM · #5 |
I'm stretching a little here, but Nikon's history is to price a bit above Canon, and unless they actually drop the D70 price at or below the Rebel's price, I don't think they'll grab enough market share in this very price-sensitive segment to encourage Canon to drop the Rebel price in any MAJOR way.
In the absence of extreme pressure from Nikon, Market saturation will be the key; once sales start to drop, the price will fall, but not before.
|
|
|
|
01/14/2004 02:22:37 PM · #6 |
I posted that link about the 300D price rumour, here it is again:
//forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=7257240
The more I think about the more it seems achievable. Keep in the back of your head that Canon makes more money on lenses than on their camera. It is not as extreme as inkjet manufacturers, but......
Possibility:
1) 300D price-drop to 600-700 dollars
- kills all prosumer models, kills the Nikon D70 (don't write it off, there are some rumors about the specs of the D70 that might make it a very interesting offer, unless...... (see 2)
- compete with all the new 8mp prosumers (Sony will not be the only one)
- compete with a possible Fuji S9000 4/3' camera
- compete with the cheaper version of the Olympus E1
- makes room for the 10D to drop in price and a 10D pricedrop makes room for a new camera
2) 10D pricedrop to 1000/1100 dollars
- remember, Canon is cranking out 100.000 6mp CMOS'es a month now, 30.000 for the 10D, 70.000 for the 300D. They make the CMOS sensor themselves and that gives them a huge cost advantage
- compete with all competion high grade SLR's like the D70, the D100 succesor, the SD10, the E1, the *ist D, the new Minolta dSLR
- the 10D might not get a succesor, but just a big brother, they can leave the production line intact and since it is already written off in the books, they have a price advantage.
3) D? 10D's big brother at 1600 to 1500 dollars
- bigger sensor (1.3x or full frame -FF unlikely) with anything between 6 and 8mp, larger buffer, more gimmicks, in the 10D body, with the 10D viewfinder
4) New 1D anywhere between 3500 and 2000 dollars
- same sensor or FF 6-8mp, tank body, environmentally sealed with anything the photjournalist needs. For all I care with the rumoured option of a 4mp crop with higher framerates and longer continious shooting, in the 1D body with the 1Ds viewfinder
5) 1Ds or new 1Ds remaining at the high pricepoint
- maybe later this year at Photokina a new 1Ds with the same sensor, but better perfomance and a slightly lower price or perhaps a considerably lower price when the Fujifilm S3 is fullframe or when the Nikon F6 offers a fullframe digital back.
5a) Photokina: Rebel 400D at the same price as the 10D with the sensor of the camera at point 3
6) PMA is only a month away :)
|
|
|
|
01/14/2004 03:16:01 PM · #7 |
Originally posted by Azrifel:
The more I think about the more it seems achievable. Keep in the back of your head that Canon makes more money on lenses than on their camera. It is not as extreme as inkjet manufacturers, but...... |
And the more bodies out there the greater need for lenses!
One can only hope!
Message edited by author 2004-01-14 15:18:01.
|
|
|
|
Current Server Time: 09/10/2025 06:46:19 AM  |
Home -
Challenges -
Community -
League -
Photos -
Cameras -
Lenses -
Learn -
Help -
Terms of Use -
Privacy -
Top ^
DPChallenge, and website content and design, Copyright © 2001-2025 Challenging Technologies, LLC.
All digital photo copyrights belong to the photographers and may not be used without permission.
Current Server Time: 09/10/2025 06:46:19 AM EDT.
|
