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08/11/2006 09:18:18 AM · #1 |
a company has a stock quote of 30 + dollars and in less than a year its down to $5.00. Does this mean it will go out of business?
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08/11/2006 09:20:45 AM · #2 |
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08/11/2006 09:23:40 AM · #3 |
No, not necessarily. The stock market reflects only what people are willing to pay to own a piece of a company. So the stock price is a mark of perception, not reality. Also, the stock market as a whole has trends (for a particular industry or for all industries) that you will see reflected in each company's price (like the IT crash of 2000).
And right now, the stock market sucks. So that could be a factor. But yes, it could also be due to bad financial news about the company in particular.
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08/11/2006 09:25:45 AM · #4 |
well the company is Pier1 they cant compete with Target, so they say.
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08/11/2006 09:29:39 AM · #5 |
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08/11/2006 09:33:50 AM · #6 |
My main client is traded on the stock market and I have access to all sorts of insider information, and have had for other companies for many years. The stock price rarely matches whats actually happening in the company, in my experience (junior mining exploration).
"Buy on rumour and sell on news." or something to that effect, is the saying.
The stock market makes no sense to me.
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08/11/2006 09:38:11 AM · #7 |
I do know their sales, advertising, and store locations suck. Their merchandise is way overpriced also.
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08/11/2006 09:45:37 AM · #8 |
I played the market for a little while. I lost a lot of money on good information, and luckily made it back later on a total gamble.
I don't bother with stocks any more, except for my bank's investment fund for my kids' Registered Education Savings Plan. I guess our RRSP is in some sort of bank fund as well, but that's so miniscule it'll only buy us a month's worth of Raman when we're seniors. I'll have to work until the day I die. :-(
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08/11/2006 09:52:39 AM · #9 |
In general, retail is bad news. High expenses, low profit margin.
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08/11/2006 09:53:29 AM · #10 |
And I lost a few thou on the stock market myself, thanks to that IT crash I mentioned before...
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08/11/2006 09:55:52 AM · #11 |
Here's the best tip I can give you. Do NOT buy a stock because your friend calls you and says "Listen, so-and-so says this is the stock to buy! Buy it now! Hurry!" I bought Cisco at over 50 bucks a share. sigh...
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08/11/2006 10:59:40 AM · #12 |
My tip is: anything that has to do with oil and stuff you can make oil (and replacements like ethanol) out of. Metals are interesting too.
I read an interesting article that confirms what I was already thinking.
The oil price is also going to be the major factor that influences the price of food. The base elements of many things that we eat can also be refined to fuels and that is already happening on a large scale. It is nearing the situation where supply can hardly keep up with demand and where the oil companies are going to set the buy prices in a fight with for example a bakery or a farmer who uses b-grade stuff to feed his animals.
This also puts the situation in third world countries in a new light. It will not be long that the people there are not only starving from supply shortage, but that that shortage is going to be greatly enhanced by our demand for alternative fuels. So while we happily drive on our alternative fuel or fuel with bio additives this will cause other people to die of food shortage. Sounds farfetched but it is true. So maybe you can try to make a lot of money with some option fun on grain and corn, after which you can donate that to the people wo need the food, which in turn is going to drive up the price again.....
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08/11/2006 11:05:09 AM · #13 |
Originally posted by Azrifel:
My tip is: anything that has to do with oil and stuff you can make oil (and replacements like ethanol) out of. Metals are interesting too. |
What happens to oil prices when GM announces they are going to aggressively pursue some other fuel source, like Hydrogen? It's inevitable since there's only a generation or two left of oil. Just a matter of when.
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08/11/2006 11:17:28 AM · #14 |
chinabun : you need to take a look at that particular stock history over a long period, say last year..
print out the charts for that stock and compare it to the major market index along the same period..
also compare it along other companies in the same sector..
if this company performs in non conformance with the rest of the market/sector AND you have no reason to think this company has any good prospects in the near future.. then yes .. dump the stock.. 5 $ from 30 is a major dip.
if this company more or less follows the major trend of the market or at least that sector, then take a look at the peaks. alot of the market analysis stipulates that "history repeats itself" in other words patterns tend to reoccur over long periods.. if the whole market is in a down now and its at its low ( would help if it reached that low and recovered from it before ) then you might hold on to it... this must be backed up with good fundemental analysis provided for that company.
i have lost many thousands during market corrections and crashes.. but if you stick to a fundamentally good stock.. then on the long run you may recover ( or not ) .. but i wouldnt hold on to a stock which losing money or has legal problems .
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08/11/2006 11:22:22 AM · #15 |
i dont have stock in the company. i was just asking because my fiance works there LOL. The company keeps saying their fine but he's looking elsewhere. Two months ago he was only working about 28 hrs a week because they were slow, now he is working 50 hrs a week, but they still arent selling anything. Doesnt make sense. He said they keep asking management but all they say is I dont know whats going to happen.
Originally posted by rami:
chinabun : you need to take a look at that particular stock history over a long period, say last year..
print out the charts for that stock and compare it to the major market index along the same period..
also compare it along other companies in the same sector..
if this company performs in non conformance with the rest of the market/sector AND you have no reason to think this company has any good prospects in the near future.. then yes .. dump the stock.. 5 $ from 30 is a major dip.
if this company more or less follows the major trend of the market or at least that sector, then take a look at the peaks. alot of the market analysis stipulates that "history repeats itself" in other words patterns tend to reoccur over long periods.. if the whole market is in a down now and its at its low ( would help if it reached that low and recovered from it before ) then you might hold on to it... this must be backed up with good fundemental analysis provided for that company.
i have lost many thousands during market corrections and crashes.. but if you stick to a fundamentally good stock.. then on the long run you may recover ( or not ) .. but i wouldnt hold on to a stock which losing money or has legal problems . |
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08/11/2006 11:25:31 AM · #16 |
Originally posted by Chinabun:
a company has a stock quote of 30 + dollars and in less than a year its down to $5.00. Does this mean it will go out of business? |
Not really. Look at Nortel. It was up over $100 per share at one point and crashed to penny stock. I think it's trading now at about $5-6. |
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08/11/2006 11:27:37 AM · #17 |
| i wish my parents put all their money in microsoft when i was youg.. one thing for sure, i'd be pointing EOS 1D mark II at ya'all |
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08/11/2006 12:15:21 PM · #18 |
| I wish my grand dad would of invested in Coke~Cola stock. Here people did from the start. That's why in this small town we have three of the TOP 500 millionaire's living here with a $770 million each. All inherited their money for coca~cola stock. |
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08/11/2006 02:26:35 PM · #19 |
Originally posted by posthumous:
Originally posted by Azrifel:
My tip is: anything that has to do with oil and stuff you can make oil (and replacements like ethanol) out of. Metals are interesting too. |
What happens to oil prices when GM announces they are going to aggressively pursue some other fuel source, like Hydrogen? It's inevitable since there's only a generation or two left of oil. Just a matter of when. |
The market wont's switch so fast to an alternative fuel. The technology will first only be used in high class expensive models. Before it gets down to the cheaper models it will take a while. At that moment there is still the market for 2nd hand models (probably very cheap because the oil price will be high and the supply is so large). Plus, the big emerging markets in southeast Asia will drive on oil for a long time I think. The demand will not get less when America turns to something like hydrogen because other markets are growing faster than the western market will be shrinking (while supply keeps shrinking too).
You can also gamble on a big war in the middle-east where the Iranians, Saudis and Kuweitis will stop supplying for a while. Do not think that an oil company or alternative fuel supplier won't make money in that situation.
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08/11/2006 02:30:55 PM · #20 |
Originally posted by Azrifel:
Originally posted by posthumous:
Originally posted by Azrifel:
My tip is: anything that has to do with oil and stuff you can make oil (and replacements like ethanol) out of. Metals are interesting too. |
What happens to oil prices when GM announces they are going to aggressively pursue some other fuel source, like Hydrogen? It's inevitable since there's only a generation or two left of oil. Just a matter of when. |
The market wont's switch so fast to an alternative fuel. The technology will first only be used in high class expensive models. Before it gets down to the cheaper models it will take a while. At that moment there is still the market for 2nd hand models (probably very cheap because the oil price will be high and the supply is so large). Plus, the big emerging markets in southeast Asia will drive on oil for a long time I think. The demand will not get less when America turns to something like hydrogen because other markets are growing faster than the western market will be shrinking (while supply keeps shrinking too).
You can also gamble on a big war in the middle-east where the Iranians, Saudis and Kuweitis will stop supplying for a while. Do not think that an oil company or alternative fuel supplier won't make money in that situation. |
Yes, but we're talking about the stock market (commodities market?), not reality. :) Almost all market prices are inflated these days. When people realize there is no future in oil, the price will deflate.
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08/11/2006 02:35:47 PM · #21 |
Originally posted by posthumous:
Yes, but we're talking about the stock market (commodities market?), not reality. :) Almost all market prices are inflated these days. When people realize there is no future in oil, the price will deflate. |
On the other hand I think that the oil companies are the only ones rich enough to make the needed investments, so even the alternative fuel source stays in their hands. They already have a distribution network and enough buffer to price newcommers out of the market. The effect on the stock price I do not know. But this will be a very intersting part of the market.
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08/11/2006 02:48:43 PM · #22 |
Originally posted by posthumous:
Originally posted by Azrifel:
My tip is: anything that has to do with oil and stuff you can make oil (and replacements like ethanol) out of. Metals are interesting too. |
What happens to oil prices when GM announces they are going to aggressively pursue some other fuel source, like Hydrogen? It's inevitable since there's only a generation or two left of oil. Just a matter of when. |
The next major energy source -- now that is what you want to put your money in. Get in on the ground floor and your name on the patent if you can.
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Chinabun, if all you have to go on is two snapshots (at $30 and $5) then alot of things could have happened in between. For instance, the company may have split their shares -- doubling the number of shares while halving the price for instance, but it can split other way.
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08/11/2006 03:06:01 PM · #23 |
Originally posted by Azrifel:
Originally posted by posthumous:
Yes, but we're talking about the stock market (commodities market?), not reality. :) Almost all market prices are inflated these days. When people realize there is no future in oil, the price will deflate. |
On the other hand I think that the oil companies are the only ones rich enough to make the needed investments, so even the alternative fuel source stays in their hands. They already have a distribution network and enough buffer to price newcommers out of the market. The effect on the stock price I do not know. But this will be a very intersting part of the market. |
Yes, I have a feeling the oil companies will be just fine. In fact, I think they're already plotting how to take over whatever the next energy source is. I was just talking about the oil price (which isn't the stock market, so duh on me).
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08/11/2006 03:50:21 PM · #24 |
Originally posted by Chinabun:
a company has a stock quote of 30 + dollars and in less than a year its down to $5.00. Does this mean it will go out of business? |
Well lets see. A few years ago AT&T Wireless went public, I bought a couple years worth of my salary at $31 a share. Within a few months it was down to $10. Then last year SBC bought AT&T and SBC, AT&T and Cingular became one company again (remeber the mama bell and baby bell split years ago?) Well when SBC SBC bought AT&T Wireless it was for $15 a share. The share holders were sent a check for the $15 a share, no option to exchange or hold out. AT&T and now SBC cost millions of dollars to shareholders by forcing a below market loss yet the big guys get millions in salaries. So the simple answer, nope, most big companies figure out how to make more money than before using the shareholder losses. .... OR
They file for bankrupscy protection, all stock is cancelled and they re-issue new stock and you don't get any of the new stock, so they stay in business and you loose again. Isn't life wonderful ;) |
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08/11/2006 03:57:27 PM · #25 |
Originally posted by Azrifel:
Originally posted by posthumous:
Yes, but we're talking about the stock market (commodities market?), not reality. :) Almost all market prices are inflated these days. When people realize there is no future in oil, the price will deflate. |
On the other hand I think that the oil companies are the only ones rich enough to make the needed investments, so even the alternative fuel source stays in their hands. They already have a distribution network and enough buffer to price newcommers out of the market. The effect on the stock price I do not know. But this will be a very intersting part of the market. |
The Oil companies are well known for buying up alternative energy inventions like hydrogen and corn oil etc. They hold most of the patents, as they also do for the engines necessary to use these sources, so either way they win.
Steve |
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